Saturday, September 29, 2012

What If, Just What If Iran Wants the U. S. and/or Israel to Attack It

And Will Israel Attack Iran Knowing That It Cannot Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Thinking the Attack Will Force the U. S. into War with Iran?

No, All That is Not Unthinkable – And Somebody Needs to Think About It

[Editor's Note:  Unlike many of the Post on this Forum this is not funny.  Nor was it meant to be.]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went before the United Nations and clearly expressed his hope, recommendation and desire that the western nations use military force to take out Iran’s nuclear capabilities. 

Netanyahu made a case, laced with historical references, for telling Iran explicitly where it must stop to forestall an outside attack. He also warned that time was running out.

“At this late hour there is only one way to peacefully prevent Iran from getting atomic bombs,” Netanyahu told the annual gathering. “And that is by placing a clear red line on Iran’s nuclear weapons program.”

The Prime Minister clearly does not want Israel to do this alone, for several reasons.  The strongest are that (1) there is tremendous opposition to such a strike in Israel and (2) it is not clear that Israel has that capability.

What Mr. Netanyahu wants is for some type ‘red line’, a point in the Iranian weapons development that if passed would trigger military action.  This will not happen.  First of all Europe will not participate at all.  And America does not have the military resources to engage in another Asian/Middle East war.  So what Israel is really asking for is the right to go in by itself, to say to the world that Israel asked for help and support, and not getting it had no choice but to attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities itself.

Netanyahu never directly threatened his own attack on Iran, and his tone toward Obama was conciliatory, but his meaning was clear: If Iran won’t back down and the United States won’t act, Israel would be forced to do so.

No one opposes a strike against Iran if it would destroy their nuclear weapons capability, have minimal collateral damage and no negative consequences for peace in the area for the future.  But that is not possible.  Even worse, Iran may be deliberately trying to create an attack on the itself.  Why would the country do that, well there are some very rational reasons.  Here are some of them.

  1. The current regime is not popular.  An attack on Iran would consolidate the population behind the government and give it the legitimacy it currently lacks.

  1. An unprovoked attack would give Iran the moral authority to unleash terrorist attacks against Israel and the west. 

  1. The attack could well trigger an alliance of middle eastern countries in all out war against Israel.

Would the leadership of any country inflict this on their citizens?  Yes, look at the Soviet Union under Stalin.  And remember that some radicals in the U. S. accused Franklin Roosevelt of deliberately ignoring warnings against a Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor just so he could have the authority to go to war against Germany and Japan.  This is not an inconceivable idea.

Is this really what is going on?  No one knows, but somebody better start thinking about it before Iran is bombed, and they get exactly what they wanted, a world engulfed in war of terror against the west and Israel.

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