OMG Mitt Romney Has Done the Almost Impossible – Race Shifts to Mr. Obama – It is Now Mr. Obama’s to Lose

Is the Republican Strategy to Deliberately Lose? – Well No Other Explanation Seems Plausible

This Forum has consistently said the Mitt Romney was the favorite in the Presidential race because the current polling that showed Mr. Obama ahead did not matter, the polling in November was what was critical.  And because Mr. Romney would have an overwhelming monetary advantage due to outside advertising and because the economy was not likely to improve, Mr. Romney should prevail once the votes are counted. 

But now Mr. Romney and his campaign have done what would be considered impossible, except that obviously it is possible because they have done it.  They have turned the election over to Mr. Obama.  Previously it was thought that Mr. Obama could not win, but that Mr. Romney could lose.  Now the reverse is true, Mr. Romney cannot win but Mr. Obama can lose.

Here is The Dismal Political Economist’s electoral college forecast, a forecast that is absolutely guaranteed to occur, unless it doesn’t.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Colorado	9
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	New Jersey	14
Idaho	4	Missouri	10	Hawaii	4	Pennsylvania	20
Indiana	11	Montana	3	Illinois	20	Washington	12
Kansas	6	Nevada	6	Maryland	10	Minnesota	10
Kentucy	8	New Hampshire	4	Massachusetts	11	New Mexico	5
Louisiana	8	North Carolina	15	New York	29	Ohio	18
Mississippi	6	Michigan	16	Oregon	7	Virginia	13
North Dakota	3			Rhode Island	4	Wisconsin	10
Nebraska	5			Vermont	3
Oklahoma	7
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		94	Certain	156		121
Competitive	94			Competitive	121
Total	261			Total	277

So what has changed.  Obviously the two new events were Mr. Romney’s comments on the tragic death of the American ambassador in Libya and the increasing view that Mr. Romney is a right wing politician not qualified for the job.  Americans want a President who can run a credible campaign.  So far Mr. Romney has indicated he cannot.

Much of the current polling is taking place even before the polls can reflect the revelation that Mr. Romney thinks 47% of the population are just freeloaders, taking from government and the wealthy and giving back nothing in return.  Even worse for Mr. Romney are two things.  One is that the hard right wing Republican establishment is defending these comments, which is reinforcing them into the voter psyche.  The second is that the people that really know their impact, Republican candidates for other offices, are scurrying as fast as they can away from the remarks. 

A note of warning to all those who think the race is over.  It is not over.  The Press will come to hate the fact that Mr. Romney looks like a loser.  So in October there will be stories about the Romney comeback, about how the Romney campaign righted itself and how the race is once more at least tied, or leaning to Mr. Romney.  See the Press is lazy and needs ready made stories.  So they will create a tight race even if there is not one, and that alone will change things in Mr. Romney’s favor.

As for Mr. Obama, he needs to continually attack Mr. Romney.  People are not turning to Mr. Obama because they like his policies, they are turning to him because he looks better than Mr. Romney.  Once that goes away everyone is back looking at a potential President Romney.  And that idea that 10 states are key is wrong, it is really only four states, Florida, Ohio Wisconsin and Virginia.  Mr. Romney needs Florida and one other of the three or can lose Florida in which case he needs all of the other three.  Mr. Obama needs  Florida and one of the other three or he can lose Florida and then he needs all of the other three.

That's the way it is now, but just as Mr. Romney has blown a nearly sure thing, so can Mr. Obama.