Among Likely Voters the President and Mr. Romney Are Just About Tied

“Told You So, Told You So” Says The Dismal Political Economist

[Editor's note:  While we generally deplore gloating we will allow The Dismal Political Economist to do so this one time.  Hopefully it will not happen again.]

This Forum has long said that the Presidential race favored Mr. Romney and that the poll that really counts, the one in November would show Mr. Romney ahead unless he did some monumentally stupid things (which of course he is on track to do).  One reason for this was that current polling was of registered voters, and that once polling shifted to likely voters the race would be shown to be much closer.

This has now happened.  An ABC Washington Post poll earlier showed the race a tie when the criteria was likely voters, and now a New York Times/CBS poll shows the same thing.

President Obama holds a narrow three-point advantage over Mitt Romney among Americans most likely to vote in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.  .  .  . The president has 49 percent and Mr. Romney has 46 percent, a difference within the margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points on each candidate.

What happened to Mr. Obama’s convention bounce and supposed lead in the race?  It is this.

Among a wider sample of registered voters, which included fewer voters who identified themselves as Republicans, Mr. Obama has a stronger command of the race. The poll found that 51 percent of those voters supported Mr. Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., while 43 percent supported Mr. Romney and Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin.

This is the first New York Times/CBS News poll of the election cycle to take a measure of those considered most likely to vote, using a model known as the probable electorate.

The reason for all of this of course is the intense hatred the anti-Obama voters feel for the President.  This intensity has been known for years, and now it is finally showing up in the polls.  Sorry Mr. Obama, but if it is any consolation you are favored among the people who won’t bother to vote.

The professional politicians, the ones who actually know what they are doing will not be surprised by all of this.  That is why the Obama team has concentrated huge resources on a get out the vote program.  And it is why Republicans have concentrated huge resources on a suppress the vote program.  Republicans know that in a fair fight they are not likely to win, so their strategy is to make the fight unfair.  In their minds that is democracy, in the minds of the rest of us it is disgusting.  Yes it is reality, but it is still disgusting.