Uh-Oh for Mr. Romney – Time To Move Michigan to the Obama Column

Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin Now Look More Solid for Obama

An interesting phenomena in politics occurred in the month of September.  Early in the month the states of Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, the three key industrial battleground states all moved twoards to Mr. Romney.  It is not clear why, possibly the convention bounce and possibly the fact that Mr. Romney chose a running mate from the region, causing voters to more closely identify with the Romney camp.

But in the last two weeks of September the voters in all three states have moved decisively away from Mr. Romney, again pretty much in lockstep.  We think this is the result of the "47% bounce".  This Forum earlier gave Mr. Obama Wisconsin and Ohio, and now it looks like Michigan can be moved into his column.  The earlier thinking was that Michiganders were not thankful but resentful about the auto bailout and that Mr. Romney’s links to the state would help him.  Currently they are not, and it looks like the Romney campaign is conceding the state. 

Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

Key 2012 Races: Senate, MI1, MI3, MI11 | President: 2008: Obama +16.4, 2004: Kerry +3.4

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Obama (D)	Romney (R)	Spread
RCP Average	9/8 - 9/20	--	--	49.8	41.2	Obama +8.6
Rasmussen Reports	9/20 - 9/20	500 LV	4.5	54	42	Obama +12
Detroit News	9/15 - 9/17	600 LV	4.0	52	38	Obama +14
CNN/Opinion Research	9/14 - 9/18	754 LV	3.5	52	44	Obama +8
MRG	9/10 - 9/15	600 LV	4.0	48	42	Obama +6
Baydoun/Foster (D)	9/12 - 9/12	1156 LV	2.9	46	44	Obama +2
EPIC-MRA	9/8 - 9/11	600 LV	4.5	47	37	Obama +10

See All Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

                                                      Source:  RCP


This is confusing since they need Florida and a two large industrial belt states to win.  Florida and one of the three states above won’t do it for them.  The explanation, maybe the Romney people can’t count.

So here is the way the electoral race looks like it will end up in November (unless it doesn't).  Mr. Romney needs 25 electoral votes.  But for Democrats planning the victory party, wait a minute.  The Political Gods of Irony don't like that.  Still to come to affect the outcome, outside advertising dollars and the debates. And like most bounces, maybe the 47% bounce will evaporate once voters' minds turn to more important things, like the baseball playoffs and Dancing with the Stars.  And don't forget the Press, who will want to make it more competitive, with their stories of the Romney comeback, stories that will be presented whether true or false.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Colorado	9
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	New Jersey	14
Idaho	4	Missouri	10	Hawaii	4	Pennsylvania	20
Indiana	11	Montana	3	Illinois	20	Washington	12
Kansas	6	Nevada	6	Maryland	10	Minnesota	10
Kentucky	8	New Hampshire	4	Massachusetts	11	New Mexico	5
Louisiana	8	North Carolina	15	New York	29	Ohio	18
Mississippi	6			Oregon	7	Virginia	13
North Dakota	3			Rhode Island	4	Wisconsin	10
Nebraska	5			Vermont	3	Michigan	16
Oklahoma	7
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		78	Certain	156		137
Competitive	78			Competitive	137
Total	245			Total	293