Friday, September 28, 2012

Uh-Oh for Mr. Romney – Time To Move Michigan to the Obama Column

Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin Now Look More Solid for Obama

An interesting phenomena in politics occurred in the month of SeptemberEarly in the month the states of Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, the three key industrial battleground states all moved twoards to Mr. Romney.  It is not clear why, possibly the convention bounce and possibly the fact that Mr. Romney chose a running mate from the region, causing voters to more closely identify with the Romney camp.

But in the last two weeks of September the voters in all three states have moved decisively away from Mr. Romney, again pretty much in lockstep.  We think this is the result of the "47% bounce".  This Forum earlier gave Mr. Obama Wisconsin and Ohio, and now it looks like Michigan can be moved into his column.  The earlier thinking was that Michiganders were not thankful but resentful about the auto bailout and that Mr. Romney’s links to the state would help him.  Currently they are not, and it looks like the Romney campaign is conceding the state. 



Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

Key 2012 Races: SenateMI1MI3MI11 | President: 2008: Obama +16.42004: Kerry +3.4

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEObama (D)Romney (R)Spread
RCP Average9/8 - 9/20----49.841.2Obama +8.6
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/20500 LV4.55442Obama +12
Detroit News9/15 - 9/17600 LV4.05238Obama +14
CNN/Opinion Research9/14 - 9/18754 LV3.55244Obama +8
MRG9/10 - 9/15600 LV4.04842Obama +6
Baydoun/Foster (D)9/12 - 9/121156 LV2.94644Obama +2
EPIC-MRA9/8 - 9/11600 LV4.54737Obama +10













                                                      Source:  RCP


This is confusing since they need Florida and a two large industrial belt states to win.  Florida and one of the three states above won’t do it for them.  The explanation, maybe the Romney people can’t count.

So here is the way the electoral race looks like it will end up in November (unless it doesn't).  Mr. Romney needs 25 electoral votes.  But for Democrats planning the victory party, wait a minute.  The Political Gods of Irony don't like that.  Still to come to affect the outcome, outside advertising dollars and the debates. And like most bounces, maybe the 47% bounce will evaporate once voters' minds turn to more important things, like the baseball playoffs and Dancing with the Stars.  And don't forget the Press, who will want to make it more competitive, with their stories of the Romney comeback, stories that will be presented whether true or false.




States













Certain

Competitive

Certain

Competitive

Romney

Romney

Obama

Obama









Alabama
9


California
55
Colorado
9
Alaska
3


Connecticut
7
Iowa
6
Arkansas
6
Arizona
11
Delaware
3
Maine
4
Georgia
16
Florida
29
D. C.
3
New Jersey
14
Idaho
4
Missouri
10
Hawaii
4
Pennsylvania
20
Indiana
11
Montana
3
Illinois
20
Washington
12
Kansas
6
Nevada
6
Maryland
10
Minnesota
10
Kentucky
8
New Hampshire
4
Massachusetts
11
New Mexico
5
Louisiana
8
North Carolina
15
New York
29
Ohio
18
Mississippi
6


Oregon
7
Virginia
13
North Dakota
3


Rhode Island
4
Wisconsin
10
Nebraska
5


Vermont
3
Michigan
16
Oklahoma
7






South Carolina
9






South Dakota
3






Tennessee
11






Texas
38






Utah
6






West Virginia
5






Wyoming
3









Totals



Certain
167

78
Certain
156

137
Competitive
78


Competitive
137


Total
245


Total
293





No comments:

Post a Comment