An interesting phenomena in politics occurred in the month of September. Early in the month the states of
Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin,
the three key industrial battleground states all moved twoards to Mr. Romney. It is not clear why, possibly the convention
bounce and possibly the fact that Mr. Romney chose a running mate from the
region, causing voters to more closely identify with the Romney camp.
But in the last two weeks of September the voters in all three states have moved decisively away from Mr. Romney, again pretty much in lockstep. We think this is the result of the "47% bounce". This Forum earlier gave Mr. Obama
Wisconsin and Ohio, and
now it looks like Michigan
can be moved into his column. The
earlier thinking was that Michiganders were not thankful but resentful about
the auto bailout and that Mr. Romney’s links to the state would help him. Currently they are not, and it looks like the
Romney campaign is conceding the state.
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama
This is confusing since they need
So here is the way the electoral race looks like it will end up in November (unless it doesn't). Mr. Romney needs 25 electoral votes. But for Democrats planning the victory party, wait a minute. The Political Gods of Irony don't like that. Still to come to affect the outcome, outside advertising dollars and the debates. And like most bounces, maybe the 47% bounce will evaporate once voters' minds turn to more important things, like the baseball playoffs and Dancing with the Stars. And don't forget the Press, who will want to make it more competitive, with their stories of the Romney comeback, stories that will be presented whether true or false.