Friday, November 1, 2013

In Addition to the Actual Governor’s Race in Virginia There is Also a Race Among the Polls

To See Which One is Really Correct

As the race for the Governor of Virginia winds towards its conclusion this interesting event has been made more interesting by the diversity in the polling results.

Three new surveys released Wednesday showed Terry McAuliffe with varying leads in therace for Virginia governor, with each poll having a different estimate of the partisan breakdown of Tuesday’s electorate.

Quinnipiac University poll finds McAuliffe (D) up by four percentage points among likely voters over Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II (R). The survey depicts a far closer race thana Washington Post/Abt-SRBI poll released Monday, which found McAuliffe with a 12 percentage-point lead over Cuccinelli among likely voters. McAuliffe’s lead was his widest yet across three Post polls this year, while his four-point edge in the Quinnipiac poll is near his slimmest advantage in the firm’s four likely voter surveys.

So what’s going on here.  Well the explanation is that the differing polls have differing estimates on the makeup of the Virginia electorate.

In the Post poll, self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 35 to 27 percent among likely voters, while Quinnipiac found Republicans with a two-point edge in party identification, 31 to 29 percent. Previous Quinnipiac polls this fall have found Democrats with a five- to eight-point edge on identification among likely voters; a September Post poll found Democrats with a seven-point edge.

So who is right.  Well we will know that after the election, see, that’s why we have elections.  But this polling does show some hope for the Republican, Ken Cuccinelli who has adopted a strategy of appealing only to his base and hoping their turnout will be strong while the other side’s turnout will be weak. 

The feeling here, voters are driven more by dislike than they are by like.  And voters really dislike Ken Cuccinelli.  But a 12 point victory for the Democrat would be astounding, so a 4 to 6 point win is what it looks like now.  Remember, all predictions on this Forum guaranteed wrong or double your money back. (yes, this concept is orginally from Gregg Easterbrook, thanks Gregg).

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