This Forum Makes a Colossal Error in Election Predictions – The Forecast of a Republican Senate Was Totally, Completely, Utterly Wrong

Democratic Success in the Senate – The Biggest Surprise

After the 2010 elections it was clear to everyone that the Democrats would lose control of the Senate in 2012.  Well, clear to everyone except the voters who despite the numerical odds of almost 2 Democratic seats up for election for every Republican seat, the Democrats may have increased their slim majority.

How could this happen when The Dismal Political Economist was so certain it would not?  A couple of answers.

1. Retreads don’t win.  Republicans tried the old and previously successful Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin and George Allen in Virginia.  Former Democratic Senator Bob Kerrey ran in Nebraska.  They all lost.

2. Republicans failed to learn their lessons of 2010 in Delaware and Nevada and nominated really disgusting candidates in Indiana and Missouri.  They lost badly.  There are Republican candidates who are even too repulsive for some strict Republican voters.  On the plus side the removal of Todd Akin from national office is a huge blessing for the country.

3. The Democratic winner in Wisconsin is openly gay, and gay marriage passed in all four states where it was on the ballot.  The speed with which the country is moving towards acceptance rather than hatred of gay and lesbian people is astounding, and much faster than anyone realized.

4. While not having Carolina Kennedy replace Hilary Clinton in the Senate in New York was a terrible thing, the person who was appointed has done quite well and easily won  re-election.

5. Elizabeth Warren came from behind to win Massachusetts big time.  When voters saw her close up they liked her.  Who knew Massachusetts voters were that smart!

All in all this Forum was dead wrong on the Senate, and happy to be so.