Political Pundits Finally Catching On – It’s Likely Voters That Count, Not Registered Voters

 What Took Them So Long?

This Forum has consistently argued that Mitt Romney was the favorite to win in November and that the contest was his to lose.  Yes, he does seem to be doing his best to lose the election, but given the monetary advantage, the fact that Republicans will say and do anything to win, and the general lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama one would argue that despite the polls, Mr. Romney is at least tied and probably in the lead.

One reason why the polls have shown Mr. Obama ahead is that until polling takes place near the election the polling is done with registered voters.  As the election nears, polling starts to count likely voters.  And from Taegan Goddard’s site here is the result.

August 24, 2012

Obama Holds Small National Lead

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney by just two points among likely voters, 49% to 47%.

Josh Marshall: "If you look at the number for registered voters it's a 9 point Obama margin. What that means is that President Obama has actually gained a bit of ground (obviously within the margin of error) on last week's eye-popping poll showing him with a 7 point lead over Mitt Romney. But it also shows that turnout and propensity to vote are going to be the whole game going into November."

________________________________________________________________________

Yes, look at likely voters and you get a different picture.  The Romney team has always believed that if they were close prior to the convention, the convention itself would boost them into the lead.  Then the money and the debates would solidify their position. 

So far they are right on track.  And pollsters and people who believe in them are slowly learning the lesson.