Saturday, August 11, 2012

After Being Warned About This For Over a Year, Democrats Who Were Blind to the Money Explosion Against Them Are Poised to Be Drowned

No Matter How Bad Your Candidate, $2 Billion Beats $1 Billion

This Forum has been consistent in its prediction that one of the factors that would lead to a substantial defeat for Democrats in the fall elections was the massive amount of money that was going to be arrayed against them.  This coming onslaught is not registering in the polling, because it hasn’t happened yet.  But it is going to happen.

All by himself, with no additional help from the so-called independent efforts Mitt Romney is outraising the President.

Mr. Romney and the Republican National Committee raised $101.3 million in July, his campaign announced Monday, as Republican donors rallied behind their presumptive nominee with the national convention only a few weeks away.

The president’s campaign announced on Twitter on Monday morning that his July fund-raising topped out at about $75 million. “Every bit helps,” the campaign tweeted, noting that 98 percent of the contributions were under $250.

Mr. Obama’s advisers have all but conceded the money race to Mr. Romney. Fund-raising e-mails from the campaign have taken a more urgent tone over the summer, repeatedly warning supporters of the financial advantage that the Republicans will hold going into the final weeks of the presidential campaign.

And yes while it is nice of the Obama camp to be getting small donations, small donations don’t pay the bills.  The Romney folks know a basic truth, rich people have more money than poor people.

Roughly a quarter of the Republicans’ haul, $25.7 million, came in donations of under $250, as Mr. Romney worked to increase his appeal among small donors.

In the race to control the Senate, a race that Democrats will win the silver medal for the situation in Missouri with incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill illustrates what is happening with big money in politics.

As the three Republican candidates have battled it out, Ms. McCaskill has had to buckle down as well. Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS, David and Charles Koch’s Americans For Prosperity, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the 60 Plus Association have dumped as much as $15 million into the state since July 2011 to keep her on her heels.

Yes, $15 million in attack ads so far, and since the Republican nominee hasn’t even been chosen yet, this is just a taste of what is coming, like this.

Most of the spending is coming from tax-exempt 501(c)(4) organizations like Crossroads GPS, which may accept large corporate and individual donations without disclosing donors’ identities. And the outcome could show that third-party advertising from these organizations and from “super PACs” — like Now or Never, which works on behalf of Sarah Steelman, one of the Republican candidates — could tip the balance to a larger degree in a statewide or Congressional race than in the presidential contest.

Senator McCaskill is one of three near certain pickups for the Republicans, the others being North Dakota, and Nebraska, and that will give the Republicans at least a tie in the Senate.  Democratic pick-up look problematical.  In Massachusetts Wall Street bankers have given Republican Senator Scott Brown a blank check in his race, and in Nevada the Democratic nominee is having problems on ethics.  In Maine the expected winner is Angus King who is running as an independent and who will work with whichever party he feels is best for the citizens of Maine is best for Angus King.

So at best big money is going to give the U. S. a more divided government in 2013, at worst it will give the U. S. a rabidly conservative government.  Oh, and with the numbers in 2014 on Senate races it is possible that by 2015 Republicans could have a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. 

Try that out for size.

1 comment:

  1. The presidential election is overshadowing the Senate, so thanks for posting about this. The last sentence is the most frightening thing I have ever read that was not written by Stephen King.