Sunday, December 30, 2012

Not Only is America Getting Older – It’s Not Getting Younger

Less Young People Means a Lower Growth Rate

Everyone is familiar with the baby boom and most people are familiar with the baby bust.  The high birth rates of the postwar era followed by the very low birth rates of the post postwar era are producing a nation of old people.  These old people want health care and they want social security and they want everyone else to pay for it.  All of this produces all sorts of political and economic turmoil, as the last few weeks lay witness to.

Now it turns out things are going to get worse, not better.  The long term projections, like really long term show a lot more old people than everyone thought just four years ago.

On December 12th the Census Bureau said America’s projected population would rise 27% to 400m by 2050. That is 9% less than it projected for that year back in 2008. Those 65 and over will grow to 22% of the population by 2060 from 14% now, while the working-age population slips to 57% from 63%.

What does this mean?  It means fewer people are going to be working to support more people.  Contrary to what everyone thinks, a country does not make more money by lowering taxes, or having the stock market go up.  It makes more money when more people are working.  And in the future less people will be working. 

Of course much of this could be changed by an intelligent immigration policy.  Anyone see an intelligent immigration policy coming?  Really, anyone?

No comments:

Post a Comment