The Press is Starting to Do Their Thing – Make the Presidential Race Competitive – And Virginia Moves to the Romney Side

For Winning the Debate Mr. Romney is Awarded the Prize of Virginia - Are There More States to Come?

This Forum reluctantly moved the Presidential race to Mr. Obama after it appeared that Mr. Romney’s 47%  comment resulted in a permanent bounce for Mr. Obama.  But the caution that is always made is about the wild card in the race, the national press.  The press wants a story, and so if Mr. Obama is leading the story will be the Romney comeback. This is the narrative following the first debate, which Mr. Obama won on content but lost badly on style.  And in the shallow American society style trumps substance.

There was some evidence that a comeback was happening even before the debate, due in part to a waning of the bounce Mr. Obama received from Mr. Romney's 47% comment.

Here is one headline on the race.

·                                 POLITICS

·                                 October 2, 2012

Poll Shows Slim Obama Lead

As Debates Begin, President Gains With Hispanic Voters, Romney With Men

President Barack Obama heads into the first presidential debate with a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News nationwide poll that illustrates each candidate's strengths and weaknesses entering the campaign's final stretch.

The survey shows the race tightening, with Mr. Obama now leading 49% to 46% among likely voters, down slightly from the five-point lead he enjoyed in mid-September, just after the two parties' conventions. The survey of likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

In Virginia the polls are sufficiently close that the state is now switched to Mr. Romney in The Dismal Political Economist's guaranteed election forecast.  This leaves Mr. Romney one big state or two small states away from winning it all.

Mr. Romney now needs 12 electoral votes, which he can get from either Ohio or Michigan, or from  combination of Iowa or Maine joining with Wisconsin or Colorado.  With new polling we will see if Mr. Obama has handed the race back to Mr. Romney.  Today he hasn't, but today is not election day.  But if Mr. Romney gains a few points in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado etc look for headlines that say "ROMNEY SURGES IN BATTLEGROUND STATES".  Even if it is not true, that's what the news will be.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Colorado	9
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	New Jersey	14
Idaho	4	Missouri	10	Hawaii	4	Pennsylvania	20
Indiana	11	Montana	3	Illinois	20	Washington	12
Kansas	6	Nevada	6	Maryland	10	Minnesota	10
Kentucky	8	New Hampshire	4	Massachusetts	11	New Mexico	5
Louisiana	8	North Carolina	15	New York	29	Ohio	18
Mississippi	6	Virginia	13	Oregon	7
North Dakota	3			Rhode Island	4	Wisconsin	10
Nebraska	5			Vermont	3	Michigan	16
Oklahoma	7
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		91	Certain	156		124
Competitive	91			Competitive	124
Total	258			Total	280

So, about 8 days from now, when the post debate polling is complete the press may have succeeded in shifting the race back to Mr. Romney.  But don’t get too excited Romneyites, there will still be time for the exciting story about how once again the race shifts back to Mr. Obama after it shifted to Mr. Romney after it was in the bag for Mr. Obama just after it was a lock for Mr. Romney.

Creating News 24/7, that's was a compliant and lazy press does.