This Forum has attempted to utilize both hard forecasts and qualitative analysis to determine exactly how the Presidential race will end up. At the beginning of the analysis in June Mr. Romney was the clear favorite, it was his race to lose. And lose it he did. It then became Mr. Obama’s race to lose, and lose it he did. The Press, ever desirous of a story has labeled Mr. Obama’s mediocre debate performance the worse ever, and as a result the state of
was moved to Mr. Romney.
Now as polls confirm that Mr. Obama has exposed himself as a empty candidate,
Ohio and Wisconsin are moved to the Romney camp. This gives him over 300 electoral votes. Notice
that this is direct contradiction of the expert in this area, Nate Silver
who still has Mr. Obama winning.
Mr. Silver’s predictions are based solely on the math, and that math cannot pick up the qualitative aspect of what has happened in the race.
But what about the next debate? This could be even worse for Mr. Obama. He will obviously go on the attack, and Mr. Romney will obviously be ready for the attack. Fox News and the other Republican sycophants already have their story about how Mr. Romney fended off the strongest attacks ever. Because the rest of the media cannot help but repeat that story, this will boost Mr. Romney even more.
As word leaks out about Mr. Obama’s decision to go zero, one wonders if the President has any political skills at all. Yes Mr. Romney is an abominable candidate, but gee Mr. President, you still have to point that out.
Here is the guaranteed electoral college vote.
Here is the guaranteed electoral college vote. You will know it is a lock when Mr. Silver moves over to the Romney side.
Have a nice day everyone.