Five Days After the Second Presidential Debate The Polls Have Not Swung Decisively for Mr. Obama

So the Current Electoral College Forecast Prevails – Mr. Romney to Win

The second Presidential debate did one thing for Mr. Obama, it stopped the momentum towards Mr. Romney.  But it did not reverse it, and now state polls are showing the North Carolina is probably lost to the Obama camp, Florida is likely lost and Ohio is trending towards a tie, which means it is moving towards, not away from Mr. Romney.

So the guaranteed electoral college forecast still looks like this.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Michigan	16
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	New Jersey	14
Idaho	4	Missouri	10	Hawaii	4	Pennsylvania	20
Indiana	11	Montana	3	Illinois	20	Washington	12
Kansas	6	Nevada	6	Maryland	10	Minnesota	10
Kentucky	8	New Hampshire	4	Massachusetts	11	New Mexico	5
Louisiana	8	North Carolina	15	New York	29
Mississippi	6	Virginia	13	Oregon	7
North Dakota	3	Wisconsin	10	Rhode Island	4
Nebraska	5	Colorado	9	Vermont	3
Oklahoma	7	Ohio	18
South Carolina	9
South Dakota	3
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		128	Certain	156		87
Competitive	128			Competitive	87
Total	295			Total	243

with Mr. Obama still needing to pick up 27 electoral votes.  He can do so by adding Ohio and Wisconsin to his list, or leave Ohio alone and get Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia.  But if Pennsylvania or Michigan start to go away you can stick a fork into the Obama campaign, it's done.

The problem is that Mr. Obama made Mr. Romney a credible candidate in the first debate, and that can only be reversed by a stupid mistake by Mr. Romney.  And the clock is running and the game is almost over, not a lot of time to make that mistake.

Finally notice what happens if Mr. Obama gets New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia.  Not  pretty picture.