Republicans Are Not Going to Allow Taxes to Rise – Period – End of Story

Why Can’t Everyone Including the WP’s Ezra Klein See This?

It is accepted conventional wisdom that the federal deficit cannot be significantly reduced without increasing taxes.  It is also accepted conventional wisdom that the Republicans in Congress will never, ever allow taxes to be increased.  So how does one reconcile these two view.  The answer:  one does not.



Mr. Klein Pondering
Ponder Some More Mr. Klein



Ezra Klein writes analysis and opinion in the Washington Post, and usually has a pretty good handle on things.  Not this time.  Mr. Klein argues that Democrats should use the threat of allowing all Bush tax cuts to expire as a bargaining tool to force Republicans to accept a major revision of the tax code that would also raise $ trillions in new revenues over a 10 year period.  Mr. Klein believes this tactic would work in much the same way that Republicans used the threat of allowing default to obtain massive cuts in federal spending and no revenue increases in the battle that was just fought.

The White House should announce that it won’t extend any of the Bush tax cuts and will instead insist on a Gang-of-Six-esque plan that cleans the code, lowers rates for everyone, and raises $2 trillion or more in revenue. If the GOP refuses, the tax cuts will expire, our revenue problems will be solved, and Republicans will suddenly find themselves much more interested in tax reform.

Mr. Klein is totally wrong.

The reasons this will not work for Democrats are that:

1. People really don’t know or care all that much about a default, they know and care about tax increases.

2. Republicans would call the Dems bluff, and then blame them for raising taxes on middle class working families.  Dems would suffer an electoral disaster.

3. If Mr. Obama is re-elected no one believes he would veto a bill that continues all of the Bush era tax cuts.  No one.  Absolutely no one.  And if he did, note how easy it would be override such a veto by a Republican dominated House and Senate in 2013.

No Mr. Klein, the Democrats cannot hold the country hostage on extending the Bush tax cuts or anything else.  They do not have the stomach for it.  Like all politicians they are not particularly good people, but they are not as bad as Conservatives, and should not pretend to be.  That will not work.