How Winning is Losing in Politics
The results of the
Straw Poll are in and Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann led the field. Ames, Iowa
So how can this be considered a loss?
The answer to that question is that in politics it is not whether you win or lose, but how you do relative to expectations that counts. By winning the Straw Poll Ms. Bachmann has caused a huge increase in her expectations for next winter’s Iowa Caucuses.
|Why is this Person Happy? Doesn't She Know?|
She’s the favorite to win the
caucuses next year in a state that has proven tailor-made for her. Iowa
So now the Iowa Caucuses are both important and not important for Ms. Bachmann. If she wins, the win will be discounted because she was the favorite, and if she wins but not by very much political pundits may even call it a loss. If she loses, well the loss will be considered devastating because she was expected to win. In other words, her win in the Straw Poll becomes a “lose – lose” proposition for the Iowa Caucuses.
|No Ms. Bachmann|
in the Middle of this
Ms. Bachmann was the victim of just plain bad luck. Had Mr. Paul won 200 more votes he would have been the winner, and Ms. Bachmann would have had a nice, respectable second place finish with little jump in future expectations. Losing to Mr. Paul in a Straw Poll is not an event, because Mr. Paul has a small but highly charged group of supporters that result in his regular wins in Straw Polls. Mr. Paul will not be the Republican nominee.
|Mr. Perry - Hopefully Leaving for South Carolina|
That expectations thing is a killer, and Ms. Bachmann did herself no favor by raising hers.
Sorry about your loss Ms. Bachmann.