Wednesday, August 24, 2011

The Senate Math for 2012 – Get Ready for Republican Control January 2013

It’s a Game of Numbers, and the Numbers Do Not Favor Democrats

Mr. Cillizza - Hands Down, the Best

Chris Cilizza, the eminent political writer for the Washington Post has his list of the top 10 Senate races, the criteria for being in the top ten being a race that is most likely to end with a change in party representation.

The bad news for Democrats, eight of the 10 races involve Democratic seats.  The worse news for the Democrats, the fight for the two Republican seats leans heavily towards the Republicans.  The worst news for the Democrats, at this point in time it is easy to see a Republican gain of four to six seats. 

 This would put Republicans in control of the Senate with 51 to 53 seats.

Ms. Warren - She Looks Like a Harvard Prof
Is that good or bad?

Massachusetts is shaping up as one of the more interesting seats.  Republican  Scott Brown (what is with all the “Scott’s” ending up as Republicans?) won Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat after the Democrats took a “it’s our seat, we don’t have to work for it” attitude. 

 The possible Democratic challenger is Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren who earned the undying hatred of Republicans in Washington for daring to suggest that consumers needed protection from unethical banking practices. 

Ms. Warren has never run for office, and Mr. Brown has more money than he can use, and is still raising more.  Ms. Warren will need a strong campaign, a strong organization and a weak, far right Republican Presidential candidate to win.

The only other possible Dem pickup is in Nevada, where an open seat could fall their way.  A certain loss looms for the Democrats in North Dakota, meaning that Republicans really only need to win three races out of competitive races in Nebraska, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, Montana,  and Wisconsin (with former Governor Tommy Thompson running on the GOP line). 

Florida, which could go Republican is not even in the top ten, indicating just how much the 2012 election will favor Republicans. 

Mr. Obama Stuck in the Middle
And Being Sqeezed from Both Sides

The point is this.  If anyone is discouraged today about divided government, January 3, 2013 could easily see a Republican House, a Republican Senate and Mr. Obama still in the White House for four more years.  Anybody looking forward to that?  Anybody?

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