More on the Special Election in New York's 26th Congressional District

Because It’s The Only Political Game In Town

Earlier The Dismal Political Economist reported on the special election in New York state

http://dismalpoliticaleconomist.blogspot.com/2011/05/analyzing-and-forecasting-special-house.html

and here is the follow up.

From the Buffalo News comes this description of New York’s 26^th Congressional District.

What is the 26th Congressional District?

* Stretches from Erie to Monroe and includes parts of Niagara, Genesee, Orleans, Wyoming and Livingston counties.
* Home to 27,343 more Republicans than Democrats.
* Overwhelmingly white and middle class with a median income of $55,028 a year.
* Four out of every 10 people are college graduates.
* The biggest industries are education, health care, human services and manufacturing.
Source: Census Bureau

As anyone who follows politics now knows, this special election is to fill a House seat vacated by a Republican who won with 75% of the vote in 2010, but then took off his shirt and e mailed pictures to women. He promptly resigned.

The key issue is the Republican Plan to end Medicare (sorry Republicans, that’s what it is, it says so here, Plan to End Medicare, unless the Republicans take this step, Plan to Trademark Medicare) and replace it with a premium subsidy (sorry Democrats, that's what it is, it is not a voucher) for private insurance.  A self-funded third party candidate running on a Tea Party label has complicated the race.

Here’s Why the Republican Will Win:

1. The Republican candidate and outside groups have spent a huge, huge amount of money to promote her candidacy.
2. Republicans hold a huge advantage in registration.
3. The District has been Republican for over 20 years.
4. The demographic make-up of the District favors Republicans.
5. The Third Party Candidate formerly ran as a Democrat and takes away Democratic votes.
6. The Republican candidate and outside groups have spent a huge, huge amount of money to promote her candidacy.  (Yes, bears repeating)

Here’s Why the Democrat Will Win:

1. The voters are turned off by the huge amount of money the Republican and outside groups have spent.
2. The Republican Medicare proposal is very unpopular.
3. The Democratic candidate has had adequate funding.
4. The Third Party Candidate takes a disproportionate number of votes away from the Republican.
5. The Democratic candidate has a highly favorable rating, the Republican candidate does not.

Here’s Why the Third Party Candidate Will Win:

He Won’t.

Polls show the Democratic candidate with a small lead, results will be in Wednesday morning.