Karl Rove on the NY 26th Congressional Race

Mr. Rove Joins John Boehner in an Alternate Universe – Let’s Hope They Both Make it Back Soon.

The Dismal Political Economist had hoped he was at the end of discussion, analysis and confusion on assessing the rationale and impact of the recent Special Election for New York State’s 26^th Congressional District.  Alas, this is not to be.

In Thursday’s Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove, you know the political guru who directed both the rise and fall of Republicans under Pres. George W. Bush has written on the lessons to be learned and what happened in the race.

Rove on the 26^th CD Race

The result is a remarkable flight from reality.  Here is what he said, and what really happened.

Ms. Hochul won a plurality (47%) of the votes, not a majority, getting only one percentage point more than Barack Obama as he was losing the district in 2008. Not exactly a compelling performance.

This was a heavily Republican District won by the previous Republican with 75% of the vote.  A democrat was given no chance at the start of the race.

Democrats won only because a third-party candidate—self-proclaimed tea partier Jack Davis—spent a reported $3 million of his own money. Absent Mr. Davis as a spoiler—he got 9% of the vote—Democrats would never have made a serious bid for this district, nor won if they did.

It would have taken almost all of the Davis votes to have gone to the Republican candidate in order for her to have won.  The third party candidate may have made the race closer, but he did not affect the outcome.  Nate Silver summed that up nicely.

Did the Medicare reforms proposed by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and supported by Ms. Corwin play a role in the outcome? The answer is yes, though not with the blunt force and trauma some Democrats are claiming.

Well, let’s see.  Until she made the Medicare proposal the center piece of her campaign, the Democrat was behind in the polls.  After she attacked the Republican for supporting the Ryan proposal she surged ahead.  You draw your own conclusions.

Polling by American Crossroads (an independent expenditure group with which I'm associated) showed that while Ms. Hochul's Medicare attacks galvanized Democrats, they swayed few independents

Where to begin with this one.  First of all calling American Crossroads an independent group is like calling North Korea a functioning democracy.  And given that American Crossroad sank maybe as much as $800,000 into the race on the side of the Republican, is there anything in a poll they sponsored that one could take at face value?

55% in the Crossroads survey agreed with GOP arguments for the Ryan reforms while just 36% agreed with the Democrats' arguments against it.

Of course, the survey sample was 55% Republican and 36% Democrats.

The Dismal Political Economist will continue to monitor Mr. Rove, and when he returns to this universe from whatever one he has absconded to we will let you know.