Analyzing and Forecasting the Special House Race, NY 26th District

A Test of Some Importance Looms for Republicans

Tuesday will see voters in New York’s 26^th Congressional District go to the polls to elect a Representative to replace Chris Lee (R, NY) who resigned several months ago after the married Congressman sent emails of his bare torso to some women (Why the Party of Family Values seems so lacking in them is the subject of a future post by The Dismal Political Economist).

He is some capsule information on the race.

Why Is the Race Important?

This is a solidly Republican District, mostly rural and non-ethnic.  Here is the map.

A Democrat should have no chance in this District.  However, the Republican candidate has endorsed the Ryan Plan for Medicare and the Democrat has made that the central issue of the campaign.  A defeat for the Republicans would send a clear message that the Ryan Plan is potentially electoral poison for the Republicans, and change the electoral strategy of both parties.

What About the Third Party Candidate?

Jack Davis, a business owner in Akron, New York is running as a Tea Party candidate. Davis has previously run in the District as a Democrat and is largely a one issue candidate, Free Trade, which he is violently opposed to.  Initially it was thought that he would draw votes from the Republican, but his candidacy, like almost all third party efforts, is fading in the stretch.

What are the Current Polls?

The Buffalo News has a story today on the latest poll.  It shows the Democrat ahead, just about the size of the margin of error.  Surprisingly the voters leaving the Tea Party candidate are moving to the Democrat.  This is in part due to huge negative views of the Republican, because of very high spending on negative campaigning.

Has Outside Money Played a Role?

Very much so, with both parties.  In addition, the Republican has spent millions of her own fortune, as has Mr. Davis.  Karl Rove’s group is among the highest of the outside spending groups that have entered the race.  This makes it even more important for the Republican to win.

What is the Prediction?

The Dismal Political Economist thinks that at the end of the day the Republican will win, the party affiliation of the voters being just too big a hurdle for the Democrat.  The forecast is for Corwin (R) 46%, Hochul (D) 42%, Davis (I, TP) 12%.

Remember, as Gregg Easterbrook, Brookings Researcher and ESPN columnist (Tuesday Morning Quarterack) always says, “All predictions wrong or your money back”

We will update the race on Wednesday when the results are in.