First Look at the 2016 Presidential Race

No That is Not a Typo, It is Time to Take a Look at 2016 –

First Up, The Republicans

[Editor's note:  The comments on the race have been updated, see

"A Second Look at the 2016 Race" for a more current version.]

The Dismal Political Economist has been looking constantly at the political press reporting but for some unknown reason he has seen nothing about 2016.  Assuming Mr. Obama is re-elected, the 2016 contest promises to be a wide open affair, with no candidate being an incumbent President or Vice President (sorry Mr. Biden).  Also, it is the major opportunity for the Republicans to regain the Presidency and it is somewhat likely they can, given the country’s record of tiring of one political party in the White House after 8 to 12 years.

[For a Look at the Democrats See Here]

So who looks to be the major Republican Candidates in 2016?  Well, they will come from several groups.

Group 1 – The Leftovers from 2012:

Successful races for the nomination tend to be persons who have run before, see John McCain, Robert Dole, Ronald Regan, George H. W. Bush etc.  with George W. Bush being the exception.  So the first place to look for the 2016 nominee is someone who has been through the process earlier.

Out of the picture will be Mitt Romney, because of age, and the fact that going for it a third time makes him start to look like Harold Stassen. (note to Newbies, Stassen was a Minnesota Governor who ran for the nomination so many times he became a national joke).  Newt Gingrich is also out for reason all too obvious.  In contention would be

Tim Pawlenty – Name recognition and experience in the campaign, and the public exposure from four years as  host of a Fox News Show.

Jon Huntsman – Same thing, except for the Fox News thing.

Ron Paul (or Rand Paul)– Ron doesn’t care if he looks like Stassen and Rand doesn't seem to care if he looks like Rand Paul.

Herman Cain – Somebody has to bring the pizza

Group 2 – The VP Nominee from 2012

Being nominated for Vice President automatically thrusts a person into the Presidential sweepstakes the next time around, even if that person is on a losing ticket.

Marco Rubio – The Dismal Political Economist believes that Mr. Rubio was destined to be the 2012 VP nominee the day he took the lead in the polls in his race for Senator from Florida.  He brings two things to the table, Hispanic roots and Florida’s electoral votes.  Right now the smart money (if there is any in political forecasting) should be on a 2012 Republican ticket of Romney and Rubio.

John Thune – A Senator who declines to run for the top spot is automatically in contention for the second spot.

Mitch Daniels – Same for a Governor, and he brings successful state government fiscal management to the table.

Lindsey Graham – A southern somewhat moderate Senator from South Carolina with military credentials.  If he is not the VP nominee he needs to win a tough re-election fight (the primary will be the problem, not the general) to be a force in 2016.

Jeb Bush – He could easily get the call for VP in 2012.  Bush fatigue is fading and he brings Florida’s electoral votes with him.

Nikki Haley – The female governor of South Carolina who is a good campaigner and didn’t quit her job to pursue fame and fortune, well mostly to pursue fortune.  She could bring the excitement that Gov. Palin brought without the negatives.

Group 3 – Those mentioned in 2012

Just being mentioned as a potential candidate confers Presidential gravitas on a person.  For those mentioned in 2012 who didn’t run, 2016 could be the time.

Sarah Palin – For reasons that do not need to be repeated.

Mike Huckabee -  He is building a following, and could look pretty good to a lot of voters

Bobby Jindal – The Governor of Louisiana will have served two terms, and the ambition is there.

Paul Ryan – He represents the thinking wing of the Republican Party, even if the thinking is not all that correct.

Bob McDonnell – The Virginia Governor will have completed a successful term (no second terms in Va.) and has both moderate and conservative credentials.

Chris Christie – The Governor of New Jersey will be a heavy favorite, just because he gets such great joy in taking on public employees and he is heavy.

Group 4 – Republican Governors

Normally being Governor of Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin would make an individual an automatic potential candidate, but right now the negatives for those four preclude serious consideration for 2016.  That could change.

The Dismal Political Economist’s Prediction:  Can’t say, it’s impossible to predict these things that far out.  Why would anyone even write about 2016?

Next Up:  The Democrats