First Look at the 2016 Presidential Race

No That is Not a Typo, It is Time to Take a Look at 2016

And Now the Democrats

The Dismal Political Economist had been dismayed that none of the political experts had taken it upon themselves to preview the 2016 Presidential race, so in the public interest The Dismal Political Economist produced what is probably the first, but not last in-depth look at the race.  The first report was on the Republicans

First Up, The Republicans

and now it is time for the Democrats.

The first thing everyone will notice is that the potential Democratic field is much smaller than the potential Republican field.  This reflects several things.  One is that the President is like a large shade tree that crowds out the growth of lesser plants, or in this case potential candidates.  A second factor is that Democrats do not hold a majority of the Governorships, and do not hold them in states like Florida, Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania which traditionally nurture Presidential aspirants.  The Democrats do hold the Governorships of Massachusetts and California, but surely the Dems have sworn off any candidate from Massachusetts, and Governor Brown of California has been there/done that and is too old to be considered.

So hopefully the pool will get bigger, but right now here is what the Democrats have to look forward to.

Group 1 – The 2008 Contenders:

Barack Obama did not leave as lot of potential 2016 candidates after he won the nomination.  John Edwards is gone, for good because he was very, very bad.  Two others are possible but not likely.

Hilary Clinton – If Ms. Clinton decides to run she is almost certain to claim the nomination.  Her experience as Senator, Secretary of State and former First Lady gives her overwhelming credentials, and her character, charisma and perseverance in the face of losing the 2008 nomination make it almost impossible for Democrats to deny her the 2016 nomination.  The question, though is will she run?  Age and a desire for a nice retired life probably say no.

Joe Biden – Biden made a hint about running, but by 2016 his age is also a factor and a continuation of the Obama Presidency, which is how he would be perceived are not factors in his favor.  He also will likely opt for the comfortable retirement.

Group 2 – The Heavyweight

If Ms. Clinton does not run there is one person who will be the odds on favorite.

Andrew Cuomo – Assuming Gov. Cuomo wins re-election in 2014, and there does not seem to be a Republican who can challenge him effectively, he will be a strong candidate in 2016.  Re-election to office is usually a requirement for obtaining Presidential like status (Obama is the exception) and given his heritage, his previous stint in the Clinton Administration and some success in governing what is an almost ungovernable state, Cuomo would be a formidable candidate.  With Wall Street in his back yard, money would not be a problem.

Group 3 – The Potentials

Chuck Schumer – Sen. Schumer has enough ambition for several pols, and would certainly like to be the first Jewish President.  If Cuomo does not run, look for Schumer to give the race considerable attention.

Richard Durbin – Sen. Durbin is getting a good reputation in the Senate, and would be an attractive candidate.  He comes across well on television, a key factor.

Mike Beebe – The Arkansas Governor would follow the tradition of Arkansas Governors running for the Presidency.  In fact, it is almost required.

John Hickenlooper – The Governor of Colorado has a “can-do” reputation, would represent a western candidate and if his term as Governor is successful he would be a natural candidate.  Question – Is America ready to vote for a man named Hickenlooper?

Group 4 – The Long Shots

One thing about political prognostication is that the one person that is never mentioned is the one to watch.  Here are some of those.

Peter Shumlin – The Vermont Governor may have presided over a health care reform for his state that has a successful single payer state operated program.  Heavy stuff for the Democratic Party

Lincoln Chafee – An Independent, Governor Chafee of Rhode Island could register as a Democrat and tout himself as bi-partisan to a nation tired of partisan bickering.

Brian Schweitzer – Montana’s successful Democratic Governor brings the west into play, with a better name than Hickenlooper.

Jeanne Shaheen – The New Hampshire Senator has also been a successful Governor, and being from New Hampshire, well, you know.

Mark Warner – A moderate Senator from Virginia, the state that used to source almost all the Presidents.

Tom or Mark Udall – The Senators of New Mexico and Colorado respectively are listed just because of the wonderful candidacy of Morris Udall (look it up Newbies).