The Dismal Political Economist irregularly presents a forecast of the electoral vote for the 2012 election. This forecast is not a quantitative model, and does not portend to say where the race is today. Rather it takes the current polls and trends and subjectively projects where the race might end up in November. Here is the current forecast, which contrary to most experts, has Mr. Romney ahead.
The states with lines through them are ones where the forecast has changed. Note that in the previous iteration the forecast moved
Ohio and Michigan to the Romney column. This was based on current polling, plus Mr.
Romney’s so-called home state advantage in Michigan,
plus the backlash in Michigan
for having to have the auto industry bailed out.
The current iteration reflects the fact that the Romney campaign is so far quiet on
Wisconsin, and by
implication the neighboring state of Minnesota.
Yet as the ,
is a strangely
quiet presidential battleground these days and neither campaign is on the air
with broadcast television ads. Wisconsin
Why have the presidential ad wars, raging in more than half a dozen other states since May, largely bypassed
so far? Wisconsin
Could it be that
is not quite the battleground it
has been in the past? Wisconsin
“It’s not in the first tier,” said Ken Goldstein, a political scientist who heads Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks campaign advertising.
He says the campaigns’ TV buys show that
Wisconsin, where President Obama leads in the polls,
currently ranks behind seven or eight other states in competitiveness -- among
them Ohio, Virginia,
and . New Hampshire
And as the except above notes, Mr. Obama has had a steady lead in the polling. So for now Mr. Obama gets those two states, along with
Mexico where Mr. Obama’s lead among Hispanic voters
put him ahead.
as the possible path for Mr. Obama to get re-elected. Those states, and Ohio Florida are likely to hold the key.