Mitt Romney Will Win the Republican Nomination and Mitt Romney Cannot Win the Republican Nomination

In Which The Dismal Political Economist, in the Spirit of Mr. Romney’s Political Career, Takes Both Sides of the Question

Two things are clear about Mr. Romney at this time.  One, he has run an excellent campaign to this point and two, there seems to be a lack of serious competition.  The latest Quinniapic Poll shows him well ahead of his closest challengers, two of whom are not even a declared candidates.

On that note, The Dismal Political Economist will explain why it is certain Mr. Romney will win the Republican nomination and face Barack Obama in the fall 2012 election.

1. There is no viable alternative:  Mr. Romney does not have a credible challenger to the nomination.  Mr. Gingrich is on life support, Mr. Pawlenty is fast becoming a candidate who lacks even basic knowledge of fiscal matters, Mr. Santorum and Ms. Bachmann are too far to the right for even the Republican electorate and Ms. Palin gives every sign of not entering the race.

2. Mr. Romney Has Run an Excellent Campaign:  So far, the experience of how to campaign for President that Mr. Romney gained in 2008 is paying off.  He is raising money, not taking on controversial positions, finessing he way past the individual mandate in the Massachusetts health care plan, and has not taken a position of what looks like the poison pill of the Republican politics, the Ryan Plan to end Medicare.

Additionally, Mr. Romney has not stated a position on the deficit ceiling talks, and while everyone is sure he supports cutting spending he has not identified a single program that he would cut.  All of this leaves the electoral to fill in the blanks with their positions, which they attribute to Mr. Romney since he has not stated any positions of his own.

3. He Has the Fund Raising Ability:  In order to run a serious candidate needs tens of millions to finance the campaign.  Mr. Romney has more than demonstrated an ability to raise the amount of money necessary to make a credible race.

4. He Is Running a General Election Campaign:  As the front runner, Mr. Romney can concentrate his fire on Mr. Obama instead of fellow Republicans.  This results in enthusiasm and approval among even those for whom he is not the first choice.

5. He Had Done This Before:  Learning how to run a successful campaign sometimes takes losing a campaign.  Mr. Romney has done that.  Furthermore, despite their objections to the concept, Republicans do tend to nominate the next in line.

So, for the reasons stated above, Mr. Romney is certain to be successful in his quest for the Republican nomination for President.

On the other hand, if one fully accepts the above descriptions of the Romney campaign, it becomes certain at this time it is impossible for him to win the nomination.  Here is why.

1. Mr. Romney is old new news.  He is so 2008 and so not 2012.

2. He Has Angered Social Conservatives:  Mr. Romney is not planning to mount an effort in the upcoming straw poll in Iowa and may not make an all out  serious effort for the Iowa caucuses.  This is disrespecting to evangelical Christians.

3. His Personality is too cold:  Mr. Romney is said to be an engaging person in a private setting, but in public he comes across as that person you just hate to sit next to on airplane.

4. His Past Flip Flops will haunt him:  The candidate has a record and a reputation of changing his position for purely political reasons.  The Republican electorate will not trust him.

5. The Individual Mandate will doom him:  Mr. Romney supported requiring Mass. Citizens to have health insurance.  This concept is poison to the Republican base.

6. Republicans will not trust a Mormon:  This idea is totally alien to The Dismal Political Economist who does not understand their objections to Mr. Romney’s faith, which is certainly genuine and committed, but the distrust is reality.

7. The Media Will Bring Him Down:  Once the mainstream media senses that Mr. Romney is strongly favored, they will print, broadcast and blog stories to remove him as front runner in order to sell the news.  Look for stories about how his business deals blew up and cost jobs.

8. The Republican Fiscal and Social Conservatives will coalesce around a single alternative candidate.  Once it is apparent to his detractors that Mr. Romney is likely to be the nominee, the fragmented opposition will unite behind a more acceptable candidate.

So Mr. Romney is likely to be the nominee, unless he is unlikely to be the nominee.  And the looming wild card, Texas Governor Rick Perry.