Thursday, July 28, 2011

The Debt Ceiling Compromise is Starting To Take Shape

A Huge Win for Republicans

Assuming Mr. Boehner's strategy of getting his plan passed by the House, and then forcing the Senate and Mr. Obama to adopt it does not work, the beginning of the end of the debt ceiling fiasco/fight is starting to come into focus.  There are two competing plans, which are not all that different from each other.  Each will have to be voted down first, and then brought together to form an acceptable solution.

Philip Scott Andrews/The New York Times
John A. Boehner, the Speaker of the House,
 walked to a meeting on Capitol Hill on Wednesday.

The Boehner Plan in the House calls for massive unidentified spending cuts, but raises the debt ceiling in a two step process to get to 2013.  This plan may or may not pass the House, but it will not pass the Senate.

The Reid Plan calls for massive unidentified spending cuts, but cannot get 60 votes to pass the Senate.  It raises the debt ceiling on one step to get to 2013.

Once the two competing plans have been defeated, a compromise will be developed that is likely to look something like this.

  1. Massive unidentified spending cuts of $200 billion to $300 billion a year in social programs.

  1. A two step process, except that the second step will use the McConnell structure.  The debt ceiling will be raised unless Congress passes a resolution against raising it.  Congress will pas the resolution.  Mr. Obama will veto it and the veto will not be overridden.

This so-called compromise plan can only pass the House with major Democratic support.  So at the end of the day Democrats will be on the hook for raising the debt ceiling, for cutting popular spending programs once they are identified and for being tax and spend liberals even though there is not tax increase.

Republicans will have gotten a huge cut in spending with no revenue increase, and the ability to campaign against the deficit and debt ceiling against Democrats. Even more, once the unpopular cuts are announced, Republicans will campaign against Democrats and Mr. Obama on cutting popular Federal programs even though they, the Republicans wanted to cut much more.

 Mr. Obama, well he may be well down the road on his journey to becoming the Great Irrelevant President.

1 comment:

  1. you grotesquely overestimate the GOP's tactical intelligence