Friday, June 24, 2011

Tim Pawlenty Cannot Get a Break, Nate Silver Names the Top Four, William McGurn's Wall Street Journal Op/Ed Piece Tries to Fool Us, and Fails . . .

And Other News That is Worth Commenting On

Republican Presidential Candidate Tim Pawlenty served two terms a Governor of Minnesota, which gave him modest but acceptable Presidential candidate credentials.  Because the state of Minnesota is considered a moderate one, Pawlenty is considered by many to have moderate political views.  Not only is this incorrect, it goes against what Pawlenty himself is saying and doing.  He is trying to position himself in the extreme right wing of the Republican party. He has abandoned any environmental concerns and policies and has issued an economic plan that is so unrealistic it immediately gives him right wing credibility.

However, none of this has been successful.  He is still being grouped in the non-extreme wing of the party.  Here is respected columnist E. J. Dionne

In the early going, the conservative vote will be split between the right (Romney and Tim Pawlenty) and the far right (Michele Bachmann and the rest of the field).

Maybe there should be a coming out ceremony, one in which Mr. Pawlenty declares himself to be a certified right wing extremist whose views are unconnected to reality.  Yep, that ought to do it.

The Blog of Nate Silver, the best numbers person in discussing politics lists four Republicans as the top players in their race for the nomination.  One candidate is not yet in the race, another Tim Pawlenty does not belong in the top tier, and of the other two Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachmann only Mr. Romney seems like a credible candidate.  Note to Mr. Romney, if you cannot beat Michelle Bachmann, you made a bad choice in entering politics.

About ten years ago Argentina defaulted on its sovereign debt.  According to the NY Times, if Greece defaults the result may be worse than Argentina’s experience.  That experience was not all that great.
For one thing, a decade later, Argentina has still not been able to re-enter the global credit market.

Greece is scheduled to re-enter the credit markets next year.  That’s not going to happen.

Moreover, at the time of its default Argentina had a fiscal deficit of 3.2 percent of gross domestic product. Greece’s deficit was 10.5 percent of G.D.P. last year,

And as a percentage of G.D.P., Greece’s debt of 150 percent is far worse than the 54 percent Argentina had when it defaulted.

So if Argentina is still recovering from its debt crisis after ten year, what does this say about Greece.

“People sold everything and moved to Spain, and took jobs doing anything, because they felt this country had no hope,” recalled Daniel Kerner, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.

Ok, so one part of the Greek economy that may show growth if the European powers continue to press austerity will be the travel industry, in particular, ones that handle one way tickets.   

Argentina has recovered economically because a devalued currency has allowed an export boom.  Greece cannot devalue its currency, mainly because it does not have a currency.  It is in the Euro.

If you listen to William McGurn of the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal, you learn that in Indiana, all of the positive things that have happened are the result of Governor Mitch Daniels, a Republican, and all of the negative stuff is a result of Democrats.  Mr. McGurn writes glowingly of Mr. Daniels, and harshly of Democrats who are in power in South Bend, a city that according to Mr. McGurn is not doing so well.

No Mr. McGurn, it does not work that way.  You cannot give Republicans who control the state praise for all the good things and allow them to escape blame for the bad things.  Good try though. 

Also, if you take a more objective look at the state, as the NY Times has done, there are some problems you just didn’t mention.  Of course, no one said you were doing objective reporting and commentary. 

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