Republicans Set Out Their Nominating Rules for 2016 –

So Here is How The Election Plays Out

Even though the 2014 midterm elections are nine months away, after Republicans set rules for the 2016 contest it is now pretty clear how it is going to proceed.

The package, which cleared the 168-member committee with just nine dissenting votes, left Iowa and New Hampshire in the traditional roles of first caucus and first primary, followed by South Carolina and Nevada nominating contests, all in February. Other states are allowed to hold their primaries and caucuses starting on March 1.

After the first two weeks in March, states can hold winner-take-all elections, which will deliver large troves of delegates and are intended to yield a prospective nominee early in the process. States that violate the new rules would forfeit most of their delegates and alternates to the national convention.

So here is what is going to happen.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul will win the Iowa caucuses by a huge margin. This is because of the legacy of his father’s organization and the outright craziness of Iowa Republicans. In New Hampshire the establishment forces will rally around NJ Gov. Christie or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker wo is the default establishment candidate if they run, and Mr. Paul will finish a respectable second.  In South Carolina Mr. Paul will have another big win, setting up the Florida primary for the deciding factor.

In Florida the race will be between Mr. Paul, favorite son Sen. Marco Rubio, favorite son Jeb Bush and if he runs,  the favorite of the northeast transplants Mr. Christie.  The betting here, Mr. Paul ekes out a victory, the race is over and Rand Paul becomes the de facto Republican nominee.

Sorry to spoil the suspense, we just though you would want to know.