Sunday, May 27, 2012

Exclusive – Electoral College Forecast You Will Not Get Anywhere Else – Romney 283, Obama 255

The Most Comprehensive and Accurate Unscientific Projection of the Fall Results

Unlike professional prognosticators, like the state of the art, the very best and the most reliable Nate Silver of 538.com  The Dismal Political Economist believes that he and he alone can provide the best forecast of the outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election.  By analyzing thousands of pieces of information in his own small mind, he can tell with near 100% accuracy which candidate will win the electoral votes of each state. (note:  the definition of 'near' is however close he actually comes to the final result.)

Here are the results that one will take place in November.  Yes, in contradiction to conventional wisdom it shows a Romney victory.  The reasons for this are that by being subjective the projection can take into account events that are yet to happen.  For example, the Obama health care plan is likely to be dealt at least a partial and maybe fatal blow in late June with the Supreme Court decision.  And the gazillions of dollars of negative ads run by billionaires are going to have a big impact, something that no poll or mathematical analysis can take into account.

Another example, this projection has Wisconsin in the Republican column.  This is based on the expectation of a big win for Gov. Scott Walker in his recall election.  That will provide momentum in Wisconsin and prove that massive amounts of money and negative advertising work.  This will produce even more money and negative advertising in the fall. A win for Mr. Romney in Wisconsin is expected here to carry over into Minnesota. 

Momentum and intensity are factors that can never be measured, and so cannot be factored into polls or into a model like Nate Silver uses.  And momentum is moving towards Mr. Romney.  He will be making news soon with a V. P. choice, he has the favorable news reporting on lawsuits filed by Catholic organizations against the requirement to make birth control services available to their employees and he has the news industry lining up in his corner.

So here is the 50 state projection for November 2012, totally valid until it changes.






States













Certain

Competitive

Certain

Competitive

Romney

Romney

Obama

Obama









Alabama
9


California
55
Colorado
9
Alaska
3


Connecticut
7
Iowa
6
Arkansas
6
Arizona
11
Delaware
3
Maine
4
Georgia
16
Florida
29
D. C.
3
Michigan
16
Idaho
4
Minnesota
10
Hawaii
4
New Jersey
14
Indiana
11
Missouri
10
Illinois
20
Ohio
18
Kansas
6
Montana
3
Maryland
10
Pennsylvania
20
Kentucky
8
Nevada
6
Massachusetts
11
Washington
12
Louisiana
8
New Hampshire
4
New York
29


Mississippi
6
New Mexico
5
Oregon
7


North Dakota
3
North Carolina
15
Rhode Island
4


Nebraska
5
Virginia
13
Vermont
3


Oklahoma
7
Wisconsin
10




South Carolina
9






South Dakota
3






Tennessee
11






Texas
38






Utah
6






West Virginia
5






Wyoming
3














Certain
167

116
Certain
156

99
Competitive
116


Competitive
99


Total
283


Total
255



The purpose of making a projection this early is twofold.  The first is to show the trends in the voting by electoral vote.  To do that this table will be updated from time to time, and when that happens there will be a measure of the trend in the election.

The second goal is to demonstrate the insight and brilliance of this site.  Yes, that should be obvious but some viewers may not be quite that perspective.

Finally notice that if Wisconsin and New Hampshire fall to Mr. Obama, and everything else stays the same the electoral college is tied.  The movie title, 'Nightmare on Pennsylvania Avenue'.

1 comment:

  1. you crazy rightwing asshole....

    ReplyDelete