Monday, May 28, 2012

Coming in June – The Wisconsin Recall Election and the Potential Disaster for Democrats; The Greek Election and the Potential Disaster for Europe; The Supreme Court Decision on the Obama Health Care Law and the Potential Disaster for President Obama

A New Candidate for the Cruelest Month

After everyone gets past the Memorial Day weekend, and after everyone recognizes the sacrifice that the men and women of the Armed Forces have made for all of us June will begin.  It is not the month it used to be.

Mark Your Clocks and Set Your Calendar\
It's Going to be a Bumpy Month
First up is the recall election of Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin.  At this time it looks like a substantial victory for the Gov. over his Democratic opponent.  The Gov. has had unlimited funding and the negative ads have made a huge difference in the favorability rating of his opponent.  The risk in Wisconsin for Democrats is not just losing in June, but providing Republicans with the momentum to take the state in November.  If Mr. Walker wins the decision to waste huge resources in a recall election will go down as one of the great monumental political mistakes.

In mid-June the voters in Greece will once again vote to elect a Parliament that will choose the new government.  If the radical Syriza party wins it will form a government that will repudiate the Greek agreement of austerity with Europe.  Europe is making plans to kick Greece out of the Euro and the Euro Zone, and Europe is publicizing these plans in order to put pressure on Greek voters to vote for a coalition government that will uphold the bargain with Europe.

Europe’s calm face in the planning for a Greek exit belies the reality that a Greek exit will be a disaster for Europe.  By spinning a Greek exit as a possibility Europe is doing the best they can to prevent such a thing.  After the new election everyone will know if Greece has called Europe’s bluff.

At the end of June the Supreme Court will end its 2011-12 session by issuing a ruling on the Obama health care plan.  The smart money is that the Court will strike down most if not all of the plan, not so much on legal grounds which are very iffy, but on political grounds.  The current Supreme Court is one of the most politicized courts in history, and their animosity for Mr. Obama is so great that the Conservatives on the Court really do not care about the legal basis for their ruling.  But then Conservatives have always legislated from the bench, it is why they accuse Liberals of doing so, they need to deflect attention from their own actions.

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