Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Non Conventional Wisdom – The Lessons of the Florida Republican Primary

First One – There Could be a President Romney;  There Will Not be a President Gingrich

Now that the Florida GOP Primary is in the record books, with Mitt Romney’s big win there are a number of things everyone needs to know.

Some of this everyone already knew

  1. Negative Advertising Works:  Ok, everyone already knew that, but what a lot of people didn’t know is just how effective negative advertising can be.  Also, it really helps to have a target with such a ton of baggage that the negative ads almost write themselves.  Mr. Obama and his team have been forewarned if they are smart enough to look, learn and listen.  Nothing they have done and said so far gives any indication that they are that smart.

  1. The Cuban immigrant population is different:  Mr. Romney’s anti-immigrant positions generated support in the Cuban community, in large part because that community gets special immigrant status and refugees from Cuba are allow to legally come to the United States.  Mr. Gingrich picked the wrong state to attack Mr. Romney on immigration.  Too bad for Mr. Gingrich, if he had been a historian he would have known better.

  1. A huge amount of money beats a small amount of money:  Okay, nothing new there.

  1. Mr. Romney will return to acting like the presumptive nominee:  Mr. Romney took a short vacation from campaigning against Mr. Obama to campaign against Mr. Gingrich.  He will now return to campaigning against Mr. Obama, and press coverage will start to feature topics like the VP nominee and cabinet appointments.

  1. Reports that the Gingrich-Romney fight will be a debilitating factor for the general election are terribly exaggerated.  The election is 10 months away.  The harsh words in the Republican race will be forgotten in 10 weeks.  Those who oppose Mr. Romney in the Republican party oppose Mr. Obama even more.  They will be active in their support of Mr. Romney down the road.

  1. It will take 8 to 10 days before meaningful national polls will take place.  Don't pay any attention until then, you would be wasting your time.

Here is the biggest news item.  Mr. Gingrich will soon (a couple of months) be leaving the race, or if he continues to stay in, he will do so in a nearly invisible manner.  How do we know this

  1. Newt is adamant in his intention to stay in the race.  In politics that is almost always the prelude to withdrawal.  In fact, Mr. Gingrich runs the risk of becoming a political joke if he acts and talks like he is going to win.  His shelf life is limited, six to eight weeks is about his expiration date.

  1. Newt’s big money backer(s) will soon withdraw their support.  The reason these backers have the big bucks is that they are smart enough to stop backing a losing campaign.  You don’t make a billion dollars betting on the wrong horse.  For Mr. Gingrich it's a very simple situation; no money, no campaign.

  1. The Republican Media Groups and Lobbyists will send Mr. Gingrich a message.  Mr. Gingrich is living a very nice life with a very nice million dollar plus income.  He’s not Mitt Romney rich, but he is very well off. However his future income is highly dependent upon his ability to peddle influence and appear on the Republican News Network (aka Fox News).  Soon the Congressional leadership, and the Think Tanks and Fox News are going to have a “sit-down” with Mr. Gingrich and tell him straight out that if he does not get out, or does not stop active campaigning he has no economic future.  If that happens Mr. Gingrich will cave faster than Tim Pawlenty (who?).

  1. The Political Pundits are expecting Mr. Gingrich to continue the race until the convention.  If one takes the position that the professional political punditry is almost always wrong, then there is no stronger evidence that Mr. Gingrich’s days are numbered.  The stronger they assert that Mr. Gingrich is in the race to stay, the greater the liklihood he will be getting out.

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