Thursday, February 16, 2012

Uh Oh (2nd edition), Mr. Romney is Now Seen to be Losing in Ohio

The Simple Answer on Why Mr. Romney is Now Losing – He is a Lousy Candidate and He Now Has an Opponents Without Conservative Flaws

[Editor's note:  After this Post was written Mr. Santorum did release recent tax returns.  His income in recent years is about $1 million a year.  This will not make much difference in press report, the news media will continue to describe him as a "blue collar" Republican".]

This Forum has discussed the quantitative analysis of NYT preeminent blogger Nate Silver and how accurate he is.  His quantitative analysis shows Mr. Romney losing in Michigan at this momment in time as more polls come in that show Mr. Romney losing in Michigan. 


Rick Santorum39.9%77%
Mitt Romney31.022
Ron Paul14.00

After Michigan comes the Super Tuesday primaries and pundits will focus in key states like Ohio.  Right now Mr. Silver’s model show Mr. Santorum winning in Ohio.

Rick Santorum38.0%70%
Mitt Romney30.528
Newt Gingrich20.93

How can this be?  Unlike many political issues, it’s not complicated.

  1. Mr. Romney has run a lousy campaign strategy.  He decided early on that the way to be the nominee was to campaign as the nominee.  He thus focused and continues to focus his attacks on President Obama.  This worked nicely when Mr. Romney was ahead, and there were many candidates.  It ain’t working now that there is only one viable candidate against him.

  1. There was overkill against Mr. Gingrich.  Mr. Romney decided to bury Mr. Gingrich in Florida, and he did so, but he overdid it.  As a result he acquired a reputation of only running highly negative ads, and using his “independent” PAC to do so, rather than do so under his own name. Mr. Gingrich’s campaign is indeed dead, too dead in fact for Mr. Romney.  As a result Mr. Gingrich is not available to split the vote with Mr. Santorum.

  1. Mr. Romney is left with an opponent with no obvious Conservative flaws.  While Mr. Santorum is somewhat of a national joke to moderates and Democrats, his Conservative bond fides are platinum.    Previously Mr. Romney was running against Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.  About as easy a target list as one could ever hope to find.  With Mr. Santorum he has someone who has no faults as far as the radical conservatives of the Republican party is concerned.

  1. Under pressure, Mr. Romney does not do well.  He doesn’t do well in unscripted moments.  His recent article in the Detroit Times in which he castigated blue collar union workers was really not the thing to do in the open primary nature of Michigan. 

  1. After his Florida and Nevada wins, Mr. Romney made one of the greatest strategy errors ever made in American politics.  He ignored the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado, and the non-binding primary in Missouri.  As a result Mr. Santorum got headlines for “winning” three contests.  The media immediately put Mr. Santorum into contention.

  1. The media, which used to love Mr. Romney doesn’t even like him anymore.  Furthermore it is in their interests to promote a Romney/Santorum race.  The media is furthering the myth that Mr. Santorum is a “blue collar” Republican, and giving him a lot of credit because his grandfather was a coal miner.  Mr. Santorum, when he releases his financial information, will be shown to be a very wealthy person who makes a large income.  Not Mitt Romney wealthy, but very wealthy compared to average Americans.  For now the Press is willing to ignore this.

So at this point in time, with Mr. Romney down in Ohio and Michigan, and right now it don’t look good.  But those votes are not happening now.  We’ll keep monitoring Mr. Silver, though, he will tell all us where this is going long before the votes are in.

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