What If Republicans Are Deliberately Trying to Lose the 2012 Presidential Election

Note to Mr. Romney:  It’s Not a Fantasy Conspiracy If They Are Really Plotting Against You

[Update:  Mr. Silver's 538 now has Mr. Romney tied and with a slightly favorable probability of winning Michigan.] 

Michigan	Vote Projection	Chance of Win
Rick Santorum	35.5%	49%
Mitt Romney	35.4	51
Ron Paul	13.3	0

There is some good news for Mr. Romney in the state of Michigan.  The race is tightening and the once huge lead that Mr. Santorum had is very narrow.  Nate Silver of 538 Blog of the New York Times  shows the state of the race at this moment.  Just a week ago Mr. Santorum was up by a large amount and his probability of winning was 77%.  Now it is less than 60% and falling.

Mr. Romney is benefiting from the time factor.  After Mr. Santorum’s triple win in Missouri, Colorado and Minnesota he jumped ahead in Michigan.  But time has a way of catching up with flawed candidates.  As voters, even highly conservative voters contemplate the concept of a Santorum nomination a Romney nomination starts to look better.  By the weekend Mr. Silver’s 538 Forum will have the likely outcome and it could be very close.

So what is going on here?  Well suppose the Republicans have decided that 2012 will be a better year for them if they lose the Presidency with Mitt Romney as the nominee.  This does a lot of things for the party.

1. Republicans do a lot better in non-Presidential elections with Democrats in the Presidency.  With Mr. Bush in office Republicans were blown away in 2006 and 2008.  With Mr. Obama in office Republicans had a huge win in 2010. 

2. Looking ahead, if Democrats are in the White House, Republicans could win a massive victory in 2014, with a huge majority in the House and a strong majority in the Senate.

3. If Mr. Romney loses that would be the end of any Republican whose is considered “moderate”.  Mr. Romney’s loss would be blamed on the fact that the Republicans did not nominate a true Conservative.  This would make a true Conservative a lock for the 2016 nomination.

4. A 2016 lineup could be a lot stronger than the 2012 candidates (really, how could it be weaker).  The big four, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels and Robert McDonnell would all be considered strong candidates, particularly compared to Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.  The Democrats have no bench strength, no strong candidate waiting for 2016. 

So by losing in 2012 Republicans could be set up for game changing victories in 2014 and 2016.  How would they engineer the defeat in 2012?  It’s not too difficult.  The strategy would be to weaken Mr. Romney to the point that while he wins the nomination, he loses the general election.  This would involve temporarily supporting candidates like Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum who would force Mr. Romney into making statements and taking positions that make him an unelectable nominee. 

Of course, to accomplish this strategy it would require that people like Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and even Mr. Romney to be “Useful Idiots”.  Wow, this theory gets stronger and more believable every day!