Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Uh Oh – Nate Silver’s Mathematical Election Model Shows Mitt Romney Losing Big in Michigan Primary

Could Republicans Really Nominate Rick Santorum? – Uh Yes,  They Might Not, But They Could

This Forum has frequently praised the electoral prognostications of Nate Silver, whose Five Thirty Eight Forum for the New York Times is the absolute most accurate predictive analysis of election outcomes.  Mr. Silver has created mathematical models which take in polls and all sorts of other data to present a forecast of the election results and the probability that a candidate will win.

Here is his current projection for the Michigan primary, based on polls through February 13.


VOTE 
PROJECTION
CHANCE 
OF WIN
Rick Santorum
40.2%
80%
Mitt Romney
26.7
17
Newt Gingrich
17.6
3



The value of this quantitative data is not that it is predictive at this point.  It is not.  But it is the most accurate measure of where the primary election stands in Michigan today.  So what everyone needs to do is to check this data every couple of days, because that will tell us where the trend is headed.  And Mr. Romney, if it does not start heading in your direction you are headed for a major, major embarrassment, because the press will magnify the story.   Get your head around that, Mitt.

1 comment:

  1. From Taegan Goddard:
    February 16, 2012

    Quote of the Day

    "That won't happen."

    -- Mitt Romney, when asked by the Grand Rapids Press if he could lose in Michigan to Rick Santorum.

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/02/16/quote_of_the_day.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

    ReplyDelete