Uh Oh – Nate Silver’s Mathematical Election Model Shows Mitt Romney Losing Big in Michigan Primary

Could Republicans Really Nominate Rick Santorum? – Uh Yes,  They Might Not, But They Could

This Forum has frequently praised the electoral prognostications of Nate Silver, whose Five Thirty Eight Forum for the New York Times is the absolute most accurate predictive analysis of election outcomes.  Mr. Silver has created mathematical models which take in polls and all sorts of other data to present a forecast of the election results and the probability that a candidate will win.

Here is his current projection for the Michigan primary, based on polls through February 13.

Michigan	VOTE  PROJECTION	CHANCE  OF WIN
Rick Santorum	40.2%	80%
Mitt Romney	26.7	17
Newt Gingrich	17.6	3

The value of this quantitative data is not that it is predictive at this point.  It is not.  But it is the most accurate measure of where the primary election stands in Michigan today.  So what everyone needs to do is to check this data every couple of days, because that will tell us where the trend is headed.  And Mr. Romney, if it does not start heading in your direction you are headed for a major, major embarrassment, because the press will magnify the story.   Get your head around that, Mitt.