This Forum has decided to periodically forecast the Electoral College results for the fall election. The methodology is pure subjectivity. Based on current polling and expected trends The Dismal Political Economist believes that he, and he alone can accurately state where things will end up in November. Of course he also believes the Buffalo Bills will ultimately win a Super Bowl.
Earlier in the first version of this exercise the forecast was for Mr. Romney to win the electoral college votes by a margin of 283 to 255. Yes this flew in the face of most forecast, because they are using current polling. The forecasts here use current polling but also take into account trends and future events, like the coming smack down of Mr. Obama’s health care legislation and the coming massive onslaught of negative campaign ads from third party billionaires. Also, current polling is using registered voters; just wait and see what it looks like using likely voters.
Here is the current forecast of what will happen in the fall on a state by state basis.
As can be seen, Michigan and Ohio are expected to be moved from the Obama column and into the Romney column. This goes against conventional wisdom which says that both of the states should favor Mr. Obama in large part because he saved the
auto industry, which has a big presence in both Ohio
But the bailout is yesterday’s news, and besides, people don’t like to be reminded that they had to be bailed out. People like to think they succeeded on their own. Also as the economic cool down continues both of these states will be affected, and vulnerable to Mr. Romney’s message that he will do better. The events of the first week in June, described in the Post just after this one have yet to be incorporated into the polling.
Oh yes, and looking ahead
are all shaky for the President.
Have a nice day, Democratic National Committee.