Nebraska Democratic Senator Ben Nelson May Not Run for Re-Election

Withdrawal Would Move Seat from Probable Republican to Certain Republican

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska has been an anomaly.  He is a successful (ie won elections, but not necessarily did anyting else) Democratic politician in a Republican dominated state.  He has survived in large part because of the value of incumbency;  voters tend to keep an elected official in place rather than go with an unknown person. 

Mr. Nelson is up for re-election in 2012.  His campaign is ready to go.

Nelson has his campaign leadership in place, has blanketed the state with a series of TV ads paid for by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has raised campaign funds and banked more than $3 million for a re-election bid

But the Senator is not ready to go, at least not yet.

"I'll sit down with my family to discuss the future," Nelson said Tuesday during a telephone interview. "They are my sounding board. I value what they say."

Nelson said he will weigh his family's views along with a personal judgment on "whether I believe I have a role to play in dealing with a very divided Congress in a very divided country, whether I could be constructive in finding some solutions, whether I am convinced I can be a positive force for the following six years."

This is Washington-ease for saying “I ain’t running”.  This is not surprising.  Mr. Nelson is not likely to win in Nebraska, given the lack of popularity of Mr. Obama in that state. 

The Dismal Political Economist has long believed that the Republicans will win control of the Senate in 2012.  The math is against the Democrats, who have about twice as many seats to defend as the Republicans.  Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad will retire, making it a certainty his seat will go to the Republicans, who need only four wins and no losses to take control.  No Republican seat is favored to go Democratic, although currently Nevada and Massachusetts are close. 

If the Senate does go Republican, then in 2013 the U. S. will have either a Democratic President despised by almost half the country with a totally Republican Congress, or a Republican controlled government with both the Presidency and the Congress dominated by a Conservative philosophy. 

Anybody want a third choice?