Monday, November 14, 2011

Republican Polling Moving As Expected; Mr. Romney is Solidifying His Lead, Mr. Gingrich is Moving into the First Alternative Slot and Mr. Cain Is Faltering

The Good New For Mr. Perry, He is Down Only 4 Percentage Points;  The Bad News, He Only Had 8% to Start With

The WSJ/NBC Polling Team went back and re-interviewed 102 likely Republican voters who had been polled earlier in order to determine what had changed.  While a lot has changed, the changes are not unexpected.
The Dismal Political Economist had earlier cautioned that it would take until at least mid-November to determine the impact of the charge of inappropriate behavior on the part of Mr. Cain to be reflected in the polls.  Now that is starting to take place.

During that earlier canvass, those 102 Republican voters favored Mr. Cain, a former pizza-company executive, over Mr. Romney in a head-to-head race 51% to 47%. That same group more recently favored Mr. Romney 56% to 43%.

And in further bad news for Mr. Cain, (it’s been fun, really, it has).

Among those questioned again, 20% said the charges concerned them a great deal, a figure that doubled in little more than a week. Almost a quarter said they believed the charges are true. Forty-six percent still said they weren't troubled at all by the allegations, but that is down from 54%.

Say goodnight, Herman.

As far as Mr. Perry is concerned, the thinking was that after he could not name three cabinet departments he vowed to abolish during an earlier debate, his candidacy became toast.  The poll shows it is now time to take it out of the toaster put on the butter and jam.

"If it was not a good week for Herman Cain, it was an absolutely horrendous week for Rick Perry," wrote Peter Hart, the Democratic co-director of the Journal poll, who led the recontact effort. "There has been some mild decline in the standing of Herman Cain, but there has been a precipitous drop in the standing for Rick Perry."

And now the former front runner is now tied with Jon Huntsman in the race to be the next to drop out of the campaign.

So for Mr. Romney it seems this is the beginning of the end, with only Newt Gingrich left to dispatch. 

There was this telling bit of news though

Still, political watchers say the race for the nomination remains unsettled. On CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday, former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, who now chairs an outside group that has promised to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to defeat President Barack Obama, compared the nomination contest to "Cinderella trying on the slipper." It is Mr. Gingrich's turn to try on the glass shoe, he suggested.

where Mr. Barbour is described as head of an outside group that will spend hundreds of millions to defeat Mr. Obama.  This of course is just one of several outside groups ready to spend hundreds of millions to defeat Mr. Obama.  Mr. Obama, you have been warned.  America, get ready for the ugliest campaign ever, you have been warned also.

1 comment:

  1. As usual, you are very correct. I suspect it to be so ugly that I won't watch it. I'm relying on you TDPE to brief me. The sheer vulgarity and "nothing is too inappropriate or just insane" to say environment since this president's election is too ugly and unintelligent for me to even watch anymore. Thanks!