Thursday, November 10, 2011

Is New Gingrich Going to Be the Beneficiary of Herman Cain’s Decline?

Assuming Mr. Cain Will Decline; Bad Publicity May Actually  Boost Mr. Cain
The “Anybody but Romney” faction of the Republican party is running out of “anybodies”.  The latest casualty may be Herman Cain.  The most recent polls still show him even with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, but  bad news takes a while to percolate through the polling, and in Mr. Cain’s case, his supporter may be energized and even more committed by attacks on Mr. Cain coming from the media.  In polls that take place later this month Mr. Cain may even gain support.

But assuming Mr. Cain does tank, (he is not unqualified because of the behavioral charges against him, he is unqualified because he does not have the qualifications to be President) it may be  that Newt Gingrich will inherit the majority of his votes. (Mr. Perry haven taken out that gun he carries with him on jogs to shoot coyotes, and shot himself in both feet during the debate where he could not name government departments he would eliminate).

In the WSJ poll linked above and in other polls

Mr. Gingrich has rebounded from a widely panned start to place third in four of the past five publicly available polls of GOP voters, though well behind front-runners Messrs. Cain and Romney. The former House speaker's campaign said it took in more than $1 million since Oct. 1, more than Mr. Gingrich raised in the three months ended September.

But Mr. Gingrich is running out of time.  The nation’s Press is starting to anoint Mr. Romney as the nominee, and it will take a good, maybe a first place showing in Iowa to turn Mr. Gingrich into a serious contender.  And Mr. Romney does not seem worried, after all if there is one candidate who cannot survive scrutiny it is Mr. Gingrich.

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