Monday, December 12, 2011

Will There be a Nuclear War? Will There be All Out War in the Middle East? Will Newt Gingrich be the Republican Nominee?

Thinking the Unthinkable, One Horror at a Time?

One interpretation of the continually changing race for the Republcian Presidential nomination has been that Republican voters know that in the end they are going to have to go with the safe, reliable, bland, rich, good hair Mitt Romney.  But like anytime one is forced to do the unattractive but safe thing, Republican voters can’t help flirting with disaster.

How else does one explain the fact that at one time Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain were considered serious contenders?  Now the latest and last radical fling for the Republicans in Newt Gingrich.  Mfr. Gingrich has consolidated much of the anti-Romney vote because he is the only one left.  (Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum were never going to be loved by any substantial GOP block).

But current polling in the early states shows Mr. Gingrich leading in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida, and competitive in New Hampshire.

New CNN/Time polls show Newt Gingrich leading in three of the first four states voting in the Republican presidential nomination process and within striking distance in the fourth.

Iowa: Gingrich 33%, Romney 20%, Paul 17%, Perry 9%, Bachmann 7%, Santorum 5%, Huntsman 1%.

New Hampshire: Romney 35%, Gingrich 26%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 8%, Bachmann 3% Perry 2%, Santorum 2%

South Carolina: Gingrich 43%, Romney 20%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 6%, Paul 6%, Santorum 4%, Huntsman 1%.

Florida: Gingrich 48%, Romney 25%, Paul 5%, Bachmann 3%, Huntsman 3%, Perry 3%, Santorum 1%

Now the problem for Mr. Romney is time.  Think of the race as a car veering towards a cliff.  You have time to stop, but that time gets less and less the closer you get to the cliff.  The holidays are going to cause a blackout on political activity, and then the first four contests are right on top of everyone.  Unless Mr. Romney acts quickly and GOP voters wake up and vote their heads and not their guts, they could both have a problem.  

And if Mr. Romney loses to Newt Gingrich,  well no amount of therapy could probably bring him back to a sane and rationale state.

1 comment:

  1. We should hope that there would be no more war. Well, something that we aren't sure if it will disappear - cause almost in every aspect of political fight between countries of contradicting interest.

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