Republican Repeal and Replace is Neither Repeal Nor Replace

Trying and Largely Failing to Fully Understand the House Health Care Bill

Here are a few thoughts on what Paul Ryan is trying to ram through the Congress before everyone figures out what Paul Ryan is trying to ram through the Congess.

Speaker Paul Ryan and the House Leadership Heading Up Health Care Changes

1. President Trumpie will strongly support the bill by claiming it was his plan because he didn’t ever have a plan but wants people to think he had a plan. 

2. The bill will pass the House because in the end Republican party discipline will overcome concerns ultra conservatives have with the bill.  No one can remember the last conservatives to actually have principles, they have to check them at the door when they run for office as Republicans

3. Speaker Ryan is desperately trying to pass the bill before anyone finds out its cost or the estimate from the CBO on the number of people who will lose insurance. If ignorance is bliss these Republicans are the happiest people on earth.

4. Anything put together this quickly is bound to have massive flaws.  Those flaws will only be evident when the bill is enacted.

5. The big problem will be 2018 and 2019 when ACA is still in effect.  No one knows what will happen on the insurance exchanges that are the source of policies for individuals.  The educated guess is much higher premiums but that is only a guess.

6. Medicaid, which Republicans hate because it is a benefit for low income people who don’t deserve health care because they are low income people will be phased out gradually.  A death by a thousand cuts in spending.

7. The so called Advance Refundable Tax Credits are subsidies under a different name.  Really, no difference whatsoever.

8. To get recalcitrant conservatives on board Ryan and later McConnell will promise changes down the road that will gut health care reform even more.  By then they will hope that the outrage will have burned itself out.

9. The Republican plan will bring huge tax cuts for the wealthy.  What?  You were expecting something else.

10. Forecasting future health care costs is a fool’s errand.  So the fool that writes on this site will go ahead and say that U. S. health care costs will return to double digit increases in the coming years.   Rule:  If something is going to happen it will happen.

11. To implement the elimination of the exchanges and introduce the tax credits the Republicans are giving the government about 2.5 years.  That ain’t enough time.