Previewing the First Major Republican Debate: Perry vs. Romney vs ???

Rick Perry’s Tryout for a Starring Role Comes Wednesday



It's really a two person debate - really it is



Now that Texas Governor Rick Perry has entered the 2012 Presidential race the next question to be answered is whether or not he has the stature to compete at the Presidential level.  The debate process is described as a gauntlet by Washington Post political commentator Chris Cilizza will start to answer that question.

"That political gauntlet will begin Wednesday with a debate at the Ronald Reagan library in Simi Valley, Calif. It will continue with two Florida debates — one on Sept. 12 in Tampa, the other Sept. 22 in Orlando — and a Washington Post/Bloomberg candidate forum Oct. 11 in New Hampshire."



Room for One More (Mr. Perry) and and one less,
(Mr. Pawlenty)

 Any interaction between the candidates will be mild, for two reasons.

1. The large number of candidates will not permit time for any one candidate to make substantial points against the other candidates.

2. The theme of the debate, as with all Republican debates will be the iniquities of Mr. Obama.  Most of the oxygen will be used to attack the President under the theory that he or she who best goes after Mr. Obama is the best candidate for the Republican.

Here is a candidate by candidate rundown.

Mitt Romney:  Mr. Romney has relinquished the top position in the polls to Mr. Perry.  Mr. Romney’s strategy in the past has been to play the candidate’s role as “presumed nominee”, largely disregarding the other players and taking on Mr. Obama as if Mr. Romney had already won the nomination.  With Mr. Perry in the race the key question is whether or not Mr. Romney will continue this interpretation of the role, or move to a more confrontational posture with respect to Mr. Perry.

One area where Mr. Romney feels Mr. Perry is vulnerable is immigration.  Mr. Perry has allowed Texas to treat children of illegal immigrants who are illegal themselves as regular people.  Mr. Romney will take a hard line on illegals, even if they are only children.

A second area of attack for Mr. Romney will be that he is against “career politicians.”

"I happen to believe that career politicians got us into this mess, and the career politicians can’t get us out of this mess,” Mr. Romney said. “It will take someone who understands how the private economy works because he’s worked in the private economy, and I have. I’m a business guy.”

An interesting issue will be whether or not Mr. Romney uses this argument directly against Mr. Perry.  If he does not he may be accused to doing a “Pawlenty” which refers to the reluctance of the dearly departed Mr. Pawlenty to attack Mr. Romney to his face after attacking him from afar.  Mr. Romney wants tea party support, so he may vacillate, which will not help him.

Rick Perry:  Mr. Perry will be vulnerable due to his lack of debate experience.  Mr. Romney has great experience and has learned much from his run in 2008.  The challenge for Mr. Perry will be to look as comfortable as Mr. Romney and to do so without the benefit of having done this before.

Two areas where Mr. Romney is vulnerable is the Massachusetts health care reform that required health insurance coverage for all citizens and his record on jobs.  If Mr. Perry decides to attack Mr. Romney these are the places he can do so.  In fact, if Mr. Romney goes after Mr. Perry on immigration then Mr. Perry will have to go after Mr. Romney on health care and on job creation, both as Governor and as private investor.

Mr. Romney's recently released economic plan may be too recent to be subject to a broad attack.  However the plan is not as radical as the agenda of most Conservaties and it is possible that Mr. Perry and the others will gang up on Mr. Romney for such things as bringing the corporate tax rate down to only 25%, or eliminating taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains only for those making less than $200,000 instead of every one.  Mr. Romney's economic plan should make for interesting debates either now or in the future.

Michelle Bachmann:  Once the darling of the radical Conservatives, Ms. Bachmann has fallen into third place, or worse with the entry of Mr. Perry.  Her goal will be to make herself relevant again, which is a very difficult task.  Ms. Bachmann does not seem to do well under pressure or on attack.  This debate will test that conception. If she does attack Ms. Bachmann will have to decide whether or not to go after Mr. Perry as the leader, or after Mr. Romney in an attempt to move herself into second place.

Newt Gingrich:  Mr. Gingrich hates these debates, because he has to share the stage with someone other than Newt Gingrich.  His goal will be to control his whining.

Ron Paul:  This is the beginning of the end for Mr. Paul.  Look for him to start the process of bowing out gracefully.

Rick Santorum:  Mr. Santorum will try to claim that his previous experience as a Senator qualifies him to be President.  Someone will point out that Mr. Obama’s previous experience was as a Senator.  This is also the beginning of the end for Mr. Santorum.  Look for him to start the process of bowing out, but not gracefully.

Herman Cain:  Mr. Cain will continue to enjoy the status and attention that is accorded a Presidential candidate. 

Jon Huntsman:  If Mr. Huntsman looks uncomfortable in the debate, it is because he is uncomfortable in the debate.