Is the Other Rick Perry Going to Show Up for the 2012 Campaign?

The Current Incarnation is Not Ready for Prime Time

The surprise so far of the political season has been the performance of Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican Presidential debates.  Mr. Perry’s performance in his third debate has been largely criticized, and may have resulted in his losing a rather meaningless straw poll in Florida over the weekend.  Politico has this story

Rick Perry reels after Florida flop



Mr. Perry and Republicans
Before the Debates



First, Perry drew a round of scathing reviews for his unfocused debate performance in Orlando Thursday night. Then he suffered a thumping defeat in the Florida GOP’s straw poll – to long-shot candidate Herman Cain, no less – that amounted to a vote of no confidence from dissatisfied activists.

And the Wall Street Journal has this story

As Perry Slips, Lead Narrows

Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman, said Mr. Perry looked like "a fourth-grader'' when he criticized Mr. Romney, delivering lines with his head down and voice muffled. "I still think he has considerable potential. But when you come into a race with as high expectations as Rick Perry had two months ago, you really have to deliver,'' said Mr. Cullen, who isn't affiliated with any candidate in the race.

The interesting thing is how mild and passive Mr. Perry has been.  He came into the campaign as a battling politician, one who would do anything, say anything and always attack his opponent.  He campaign adviser is known as an individual who wants to win, in any way possible.  In Mr. Perry’s comeback campaign against Sen. Hutchinson for the Texas Governorship last year, the head of Mr. Perry’s campaign

poured money into targeted TV ads, with a heavy emphasis on negative ads blasting Sen. Hutchison's voting record

and the largely negative campaign won going away.

There would seem to be two reasons for Mr. Perry’s poor showing so far.  First of all Mr. Perry has clearly underestimated what it takes in terms of stamina and preparation to engage in a series of Presidential debates.  The second, which relates to the first is that Mr. Perry’s political history is 100% Texas, and he knows Texas thoroughly.  Indeed he is so well versed in Texas details that he cannot be attacked on that subject because he can answer with facts and figures that only he knows.  .

Because of his fluency in Texas government, Mr. Perry apparently has felt he has fluency in national politics, which is clearly does not. He does not know what he does not know.  He has some time to gain knowledge and poise and delivery.  He has some time to convince skeptics that his main weakness, which is on immigration where he favored in state college tuition for illegal immigrants who had been brought to the U. S. as young children and graduated from Texas high schools is not an evil thing.

Two new polls have heightened the concerns Mr. Perry should have.  An American Research Group poll of likely Iowa Caucus goers shows Mr. Romney in front, followed by Michele Bachmann with Mr. Perry behind her.  And in Florida Mr. Romney has also taken the lead over Mr. Perry, with a Public Policy Poll showing Mr. Romney up 30% to Mr. Perry’s 24%.

If the Republican race was down to two people by the time Florida votes, Romney would lead Perry 45-36 in a head to head.

The Dismal Political Economist did warn everyone that Mr. Perry’s lead in the CNN poll taken right after the last Florida debate could be misleading

Mr. Perry should now know what he has to do. The question is does he have the will and the knowledge and the motivation to do it.