Sunday, January 29, 2012

Why Everyone (Ok, Except Mr. Gingrich for Reasons That Will Be Made Clear) Loves Nate Silver of

He Channels His Inner Dr. Seuss!

The Florida primary is on Tuesday, and just about the last word on the subject should come from the most accurate political analyst in the world, Nate Silver.  Mr. Silver uses mathematical models, really big and really good mathematical models, to predict outcomes.  And he is really, really good at it.  Here is his just about final report prior to the Florida voting.

There are traditional polls and automated polls, Internet polls and partisan polls, academic polls and commercial polls.

There are polls where voters checked a box. There are polls that were reported on Fox.

There are polls that called the voter’s house. There are polls where voters clicked a mouse.

Though the numbers were here and there, the outcome was the same everywhere.

Unless there is a major glitch, Mitt Romney will beat Newt Gingrich.

And remember that big lead Mr. Gingrich had right after the South Carolina primary.  Well everyone was warned not to take it seriously, and as the graph shows, no one should have.  Mr. Romney repeated his Iowa strategy, vicious attacks by his "independent" Super Pac, a good ground game and a little help from Mr. Gingrich in the debates.

As for the national polls, Mr. Gingrich has a lead, but those polls have a longer lag than the state of Florida polling.  Furthermore those polls are meaningless until about a week after the Florida primary.  So there is no conclusions to be drawn on the national race, except the one Mr. Romney’s camp has been making all along.  There just does not seem to be a scenario in which Mr. Romney loses.

Mr. Gingrich has said that he will be in the race until the Republican Convention, and Mr. Santorum said that although he is going home, he will continue to be in the race.  This is politi-speak for " we are running out of money and we'll be getting out soon". 

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