New Electoral College Forecast by The Dismal Political Economist Show Mr. Romney Increasing His Lead

And That’s Not Including Some Vulnerable Democratic States

This Forum has decided to periodically forecast the Electoral College results for the fall election.  The methodology is pure subjectivity.  Based on current polling and expected trends The Dismal Political Economist believes that he, and he alone can accurately state where things will end up in November.  Of course he also believes the Buffalo Bills will ultimately win a Super Bowl.

Earlier in the first version of this exercise the forecast was for Mr. Romney to win the electoral college votes by a margin of 283 to 255.  Yes this flew in the face of most forecast, because they are using current polling.  The forecasts here use current polling but also take into account trends and future events, like the coming smack down of Mr. Obama’s health care legislation and the coming massive onslaught of negative campaign ads from third party billionaires. Also, current polling is using registered voters; just wait and see what it looks like using likely voters.

Here is the current forecast of what will happen in the fall on a state by state basis.

		States
Certain		Competitive		Certain		Competitive
Romney		Romney		Obama		Obama
Alabama	9			California	55	Colorado	9
Alaska	3			Connecticut	7	Iowa	6
Arkansas	6	Arizona	11	Delaware	3	Maine	4
Georgia	16	Florida	29	D. C.	3	Michigan	16
Idaho	4	Minnesota	10	Hawaii	4	New Jersey	14
Indiana	11	Missouri	10	Illinois	20	Ohio	18
Kansas	6	Montana	3	Maryland	10	Pennsylvania	20
Kentucky	8	Nevada	6	Massachusetts	11	Washington	12
Louisiana	8	New Hampshire	4	New York	29
Mississippi	6	New Mexico	5	Oregon	7
North Dakota	3	North Carolina	15	Rhode Island	4
Nebraska	5	Virginia	13	Vermont	3
Oklahoma	7	Wisconsin	10
South Carolina	9	Michigan	16
South Dakota	3	Ohio	18
Tennessee	11
Texas	38
Utah	6
West Virginia	5
Wyoming	3
			Totals
Certain	167		150	Certain	156		65
Competitive	150			Competitive	65
Total	317			Total	221

As can be seen, Michigan and Ohio are expected to be moved from the Obama column and into the Romney column.  This goes against conventional wisdom which says that both of the states should favor Mr. Obama in large part because he saved the U. S. auto industry, which has a big presence in both Ohio and Michigan. 

But the bailout is yesterday’s news, and besides, people don’t like to be reminded that they had to be bailed out.  People like to think they succeeded on their own.  Also as the economic cool down continues both of these states will be affected, and vulnerable to Mr. Romney’s message that he will do better. The events of the first week in June, described in the Post just after this one have yet to be incorporated into the polling.

Oh yes, and looking ahead Colorado, Iowa and Pennsylvania are all shaky for the President. 

Have a nice day, Democratic National Committee.