Tuesday Elections – Strange Issues in a Non Election Year

What the Polls May Tell Us, and What They May Not

Even numbered years are election years.  Odd numbered years are not.  Yet, because Americans are so in love with elections some will creep into the odd numbered years.  Here are some of the ones to watch on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November 2011.

1. Ohio:  The state passed a harsh anti-public employee union measure earlier this year and opponents managed to get the issue on the ballot for public approval or reversal.  Polls show reversal winning, but one must be very careful of polls during a non-election where turnout will be a deciding factor.

If the measure loses and the Ohio law is upheld the so-called grass root rebellion against extreme Republican measures will be found to be an urban and rural myth.  The chances of re-calling Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker will be reduced to almost zero.

2. Mississippi:  This state will vote on whether or not to confer “personhood” on an embryo as soon as it is created.  It is not certain what the purpose of this campaign is, with the Supreme Court in its current incarnation having granted women the right to an abortion. 

A strange thing is that this is a Conservative supported measure which involves having government intrude into the most basic and private right of women.  Under the rule it would seem a miscarriage would be involuntary manslaughter, and destroying embryos from in vitro fertilization would be murder.  Most birth control methods would be illegal.

A vote for the measure could criminalize women’s private health issues, and maybe that is what its supporters want to do.

3. Kentucky:  There will be a gubernatorial race in Kentucky.  For some reason in this strong Republican state Democrats appear to be able to hold the Governor’s office.  The Democratic incumbent is strongly favored, but having not followed the state and this race closely The Dismal Political Economist does not understand the failure of Republicans in this contest.

4. State Senate Races in Virginia:  Control of the Virginia State Senate is at stake, with Democrats currently holding a narrow edge.  The Republicans have tried to make the races a referendum on the President.  The interesting thing in Virginia is that the economy is substantially better than the national economy, with unemployment at 6.5%.  This is the result of the Federal government spending in northern Virginia and on defense in the southeast part of the state.  Yet the Democrats and the President are blamed for poor economic conditions.

There are a number of other local and state races that will be interesting and informative, if not necessarily indicative of the national mood.  The Dismal Political Economist will comment on those after the results are in, because he wouldn’t want to be on record as predicting one outcome and then have the other come about.