The Republican Presidential Race So Far – A Random Walk Down a Political Street

If We Were Supposed to Have a Democracy, Wouldn’t We Have Better Candidates?

The race for the Republican nomination for President for the 2012 election has been anything but dull.  In fact, if the objective of politics in a democracy is to entertain the voters, then the Republicans have more than fulfilled their obligation.  Here is what is known so far.

The Press is now in love with Mitt Romney.  In 2000 the press fell in love in John McCain and gave him such credibility as a candidate that he captured the nomination in 2008.  Now the press has fallen for Mitt Romney.  This means he doesn’t get the hard questions, like what is his plan for Social Security and Medicare, what would he do with the illegal aliens that have been in the country since childhood, why don’t his budget numbers add up, would he go to war with Iran over their nuclear program, and so forth. 

Mr. Romney’s record in the private sector was a major factor in his loss in a Senate race to Ted Kennedy.  So far that record is absent from any 2012 election issues.  Mr. Romney did some deals where the company and the employees and himself prospered, and he did some deals where only he prospered.  This information is so far missing from the campaign stories.

Rick Perry is not who we thought he was.  The slash-and-burn reputation of a tough Texas politician has given way to a reputation of someone out of his depth. Fortunately for Mr. Perry, Republicans don’t really worry much about that (see Bush, George W.)

Mr. Perry continues to operate his campaign under the aegis of the Original Amateur Hour.  In a speech to a conservative think tank in Atlanta

Kelly McCutcheon, president of the Georgia Public Policy Foundation, confirmed that Mr. Perry was told, "this cannot be a political speech

Yet Mr. Perry went on to make a political speech and a rather lame one at that.  He attacked Mr. Romney on the grounds that some Obama administration officials who had nothing to do with Mr. Romney came from Massachusetts.

Mr. Perry also said the former executive officer of environmental affairs in Massachusetts heads air-quality regulation for the Obama administration and "a Harvard professor who helped draft carbon-reduction rules is today the science czar for President Obama."

             The president's science adviser, John Holdren, did direct the Program on Science, Technology and Public Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, but he has no apparent connection to Mr. Romney

Good Grief

One slip can doom a weak candidate.  Tim Pawlenty’s long shot campaign was fatally wounded by his failure to confront Mitt Romney face to face in a debate.  Michele Bachmann’s campaign appears to be fatally damaged by her claim that a cancer vaccine caused mental retardation.  Stronger candidates can survive mistakes, weaker ones cannot.

Jon Huntsman was the love of the media until he kept polling at the 1% level.  He is now leading the pack in the race to be the next to quit, with Michele Bachmann closing in.

The 2008 candidacies of Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama did a huge benefit to American politics.  They made it mainstream for a woman and for an African American to be considered serious Presidential candidates.  In the Republican race nothing has been made of the fact that Mr. Cain is an African American and of Ms. Bachmann’s gender.  Mr. Cain is, for now, actually being considered a serious candidate.  This is a huge plus for America, and a  positive reflection on Republicans.

Newt Gingrich has stuck with the campaign longer than most people thought.  He has even gained some support as Mr. Perry’s voters have deserted him.  No one would have been terribly upset at Mr. Gingrich if he had quit, so that is a plus for him.  On the other hand he is coming out with a new Contract for America, and that will surely be a minus.

The debates do matter, and experience matters.  Of the expected losers, Ms. Bachmann seems to be in a position to have learned the most and is most likely to give the run for the Presidency another try.  She may have to achieve state wide office though to gain any further credibility for 2016 or 2020.  Also, Ms. Bachmann’s ability to learn from her mistakes may be highly limited.

Too much experience matters also.  The fact that Mr. Romney has only one term as Governor of Massachusetts leaves little in the record to criticize.  Mr. Perry’s long tenure as Texas governor leaves a lot more for criticism targets.  It appears his immigration policy and policy with respect to in-state tuition for children who have been raised in Texas even though they do not have legal status, which was a plus in Texas, is a minus with Republican voters.  Mr. Romney wasn't in office long enough to have many policies.

Mr. Perry's chances may hinge on his ability to go highly negative.  That will be the next question to be answered.