Florida Sets January 31 Primary Date – May Push The Early States Into December

Heck, Why Not Hold the Election Now and Get It Over With

The Republican Party had plans to have a nice, leisurely, orderly nominating contest.  Iowa gets to go first with its ill defined, non-representative caucuses.  Then New Hampshire gets to go with its ill defined, non-representative primary. Then Nevada gets to hold caucuses and finally we get to a meaningful contest with the South Carolina primary.

All of this was to take place in late winter and early spring, and the idea was to give voters time to sort out the candidates and the issues and to keep an exciting and unsettled race in front of the public for the longest time possible.

Florida has upset the process.  It has set its primary date for January 31, 2012.  The result,

The four early nominating states—Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina—all planned to move up the dates of their own contests if Florida officials followed through on their plans to hold the state's primary on Jan. 31.

And when could all of that happen?

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner said his state could hold its first-in-the-nation primary before the end of the year in order to uphold tradition.

That would put the first nominating contest—the Iowa caucuses—in mid- to late-December because the state schedules the caucuses eight days ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

Florida is doing this because it recognizes its importance in the nominating process.  It could well be the deciding state.  The expectations are that Mr. Romney, Mr. Perry and maybe even Mr. Cain could all be bunched at the top in the Iowa Caucuses.  Mr. Romney is expected to win New Hampshire in a big way, he has been campaigning there for what seems like decades and even made the state one of his many residences.  The Nevada Caucuses are not all that relevant at this point, and in South Carolina Mr. Perry or Mr. Romney should be in second place. 

This leaves Florida as the early critical state.  If the second place finisher in South Carolina does not win Florida, that candidate will be dealt a severe, probably fatal blow.  If the second place finisher in South Carolina wins Florida, then the race is on to the next set of contests.  Finally, if the first place finisher wins South Carolina and Florida, he (or she, but not likely) will be a strong favorite to take the nomination.

Florida will be a very good indication of a candidate's strength.  It is full of old people, so think Social Security and Medicare as an issue.  It's Republican base is very conservative, so think pandering.  It has a high percentage of Latino voters, so think walking the tightrope on immigration.

So Florida is more than willing to risk the ire of the Republican party to make its contest highly relevant. As for the candidates, well they better start buying TV time in Florida, like tomorrow if not today.