Amazing Finding on Poll on Approval of Congress, Jon Huntsman on the Dropout Bubble, Republican Strategist Karl Rove Gets Something Right, Eating Fish from the LA River, . . .

And More News That Just Begs for Comments

A new polls show that while 87% of Americans disapprove of the current Congress, and amazingly there is 12% of the population that does approve.  Really, somewhere out there are people who think the Congress is doing a good job. 

The survey, conducted Aug. 18-22, found that approval of Congress has dropped to its lowest level in AP-GfK polling — 12 percent. That's down from 21 percent in June, before the debt deal reached fever pitch.



 Admirer of Congress But Not
Proud About It



An unnamed wealthy business leader offered to pay $100,000 to any participant in the poll willing to admit he or she approved of Congress.  Two people came forth, not to claim the money but to say the ridicule they would receive from being identified as approving of Congress was too great for just a $100,000 payment.

Republican Presidential hopeful hopeless Jon Huntsman continued to lead the polls for the “most likely to be the next to drop out of the race.  Mr. Huntsman made another giant stride towards the winner’s circle in the “drop out” race by announcing he is willing to call on sacrifices by the wealthy to help the economy and the country.

"As president, I wouldn't hesitate to call on a sacrifice from all of our people, even those at the very highest end of the income spectrum," Huntsman said. "I'm not saying higher taxes, but there are contributions they can make too."

Mr. Huntsman is currently polling about 1%, a figure many observers said was way too high and probably a statistical abnormality that was overstating his support.

Karl Rove almost always gets it wrong, but even Mr. Rove cannot be wrong all of the time.  Speaking about former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin Mr. Rove said this.

.... it is a sign of enormous, thin skin that if we speculate about her, she gets upset, and I suspect if we didn't speculate about her, she'd be upset and trying to find a way to get us to speculate about it.... it's weird, very odd"

 

Meanwhile 41% of Republicans, Republicans no less say that they would never vote for her for President.  Note to Ms. Palin:  Whatever you think you are doing, think again, it’s not working.

Rick Santorum (who?) a Republican Presidential nominee wanna-be and soon to be former Republican Presidential candidate was asked about fellow candidate Ron Paul.  Mr. Santorum,

responding to a question about the Texas congressman’s views by saying they represent a “disconnect from reality.”

Mr. Santorum went to to say that he should be taken seriously on this point,  as he is an expert on being disconnected from reality.

Remember that empty concrete river bed where a lot of movie scenes in Los Angeles take place.  That is actually the Los Angeles River.  Really it is.  And a story in the New York Time on people actually using the river has this comment, which is testimony to the strength and grit and determination of the American people.



Paddling in Los Angeles - Really!



And while it was far easier to spot plastic bags and rusting shopping carts than fish, a few people waved from the banks, where they were reeling in catfish that they said they would eat for dinner that night.

Eating bottom feeders from the L. A. River, Yum, yum

Economic Growth in Germany Expected to Slow

Well That’s Just Great – Can’t Europe Have Any Good News?

The German economy is the key to European economic growth. Germany comprises as much as 30% of the economy of the Euro countries.  Germany is today the only country capable of helping the rest of Europe survive its wrong headed policies without having to go through a second recession.

Now reports are that the projected growth of the German economy is being downgraded, and that the German economy is joining the rest of the world in a period of slower growth.

Germany faces an "obvious slowdown" that may last the rest of the year, its finance ministry warned on Monday, days after Europe's largest economy reported an unexpected pause in what had until recently been a strong recovery.

Why?  Well Germany’s economic strength had been the result of strong export demand for its manufactured goods.  While a large portion of this demand comes from Asia and Latin America where growth is strong, a significant portion of the demand comes from Europe and America where growth is not strong.

German GDP growth jumped to 5.5%, at an annualized rate, in the first quarter, and some softening was widely anticipated last quarter. But a report last week showing just 0.5% growth, at an annualized rate, raised concerns that, like other industrial economies, Germany faces a lengthy stagnation if the global economy doesn't find its footing quickly.

In short, the German economy is weakening because its customers are experiencing weak economic growth.  And because Germany is the strongest of the western economies, it remains the major source of support for Europe as Europe struggles.  But politics have limited support in Germany for bailing out its neighbors, and slow growth will limit that support even more.

So while Greece’s economic troubles primarily affect the economy of  Greece, Germany’s slower growth will affect the economy of all of Europe, and result in Europe and Germany’s future slower growth. Slow growth is the legitimate offspring of slow growth. 

Mitt Romney’s Luck Get’s Even Better – He Is Behind Rick Perry in the Polls

Why That is a Good Thing for Mr. Romney

The entry of Texas Governor Rick Perry into the Presidential Race has resulted in exactly what was expected.  By appealing to both the social issues part of the Republican party and the fiscal conservatives of the Republican party, Mr. Perry has united two somewhat disparate groups behind him.  He now has a large lead in the polls.



Mr. Romney's Secret Weapon



So why is this a good thing for Mr. Romney.  Because the goal here for the Mittster is not to just win the nomination, but to win the general election.  While the entry of Mr. Perry has reduced the chances of Mr. Romney being the Republican nominee, it has enhanced his chances of defeating Mr. Obama if he were to become the nominee.

The reasons for this is that one, in comparison to Mr. Perry and Ms. Bachmann, Mr. Romney is perceived as less radical or more moderate.  This is the image he will need to be competitive in the general election.  He doesn’t even have to say anything moderate or do anything moderate, (because no one will believe him anyway), he just has to have the perception of moderation which he automatically gets in contrast to the other candidates.

The second reason why Mr. Perry’s entry will help Mr. Romney in the general election is that if he defeats Mr. Perry for the nomination, Mr. Romney will gain status from defeating a substantial and significant candidate.  .

What glory is there in defeating Michelle Bachmann?



Even The Political Gods of Irony Favor Mr. Romney



Even better, Mr. Perry has skyrocketed to the polls in August, giving Mr. Romney plenty of time to develop a strategy to defeat him.

So if he should win the nomination Mr. Romney may well look upon Mr. Perry’s entry as giving him the best chance to win the election. 

The political gods of irony work in strange ways.

Headline News – Botox Your Bladder, Post Office Wants Slower Service, Spoiling Mitt Romney's Surprise . . .

Sometimes The Headline is All You Need



Your Bladder Without Botox



­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­_____________________________________________

Botox wins US approval as bladder treatment

And The Dismal Political Economist thought he was the only one with wrinkles on his bladder.

Rick Perry, new GOP frontrunner

And this surprises exactly who?

Slower mail could save Postal Service $1.5B

You mean they could make it slower? (That was a cheap shot, The Dismal Political Economist apologizes.)

Japan to Offer Billions in Loans to Help Weaken the Yen



But Can He Turn a Weak Currency
Into A Strong One?



See, a weak currency stimulates exports.  So why do U. S. economists say they want a strong dollar and export growth?  Stupidity, ignorance, lack of knowledge?  Pick one, but only one.

Romney will offer blueprint next month for adding jobs

Tax cuts for the wealthy; tax cuts for corporations, tax cuts for the wealthy, capital gains tax cuts, tax cuts for the wealthy, estate tax cuts, tax cuts for the wealthy, and most of all, tax cuts for the wealthy.  Sorry, hope we didn’t rule the suspense or the surprise.

France Unveils Plan to Boost Revenue, Cuts Growth Forecast

France will be raising taxes on the rich, and a leading business leader says "The rich must contribute more than the poor",  thus explaining in 8 words why Conservatives hate the French.

Budget agency projects slow growth, high joblessness

This is the Congressional Budget Office is out with its regular August economic forecast, demonstrating that some Economics Ph. D’s have an amazing grasp of the obvious.

Eric Cantor Wants to Remove Obstacles to Economic Growth, Those Obstacles Being Democrats

Living in a Fantasy World, Is the August Heat to Blame?



The Country of the Wealty, Of Course
Everyone else, you're on  your own



The Washington Post, that once well written, articulate voice of reason in the nation’s capital continues its journey to become the voice of the radical right wing.  As part of  that journey its turns over its editorial pages to Eric Cantor, (R, Va) the House Majority Leader.  Mr. Cantor’s topic, economic growth.

Mr. Cantor starts with an eminently reasonable proposition

we should go all-in on ways to invigorate growth. The Congressional Budget Office has found that for every one-tenth of 1 percent of additional economic growth, the budget deficit is narrowed by nearly $300 billion. Economic growth will help reduce the deficit and get people back to work.

But then goes on to repeat, ad nauseum, the old, tired, incorrect talking points of the failed Conservative agenda

In fact, the Obama administration’s anti-business, hyper-regulatory, pro-tax agenda has fueled economic uncertainty and sent the message from the administration that “we want to make it harder to create jobs.”. . .



Mr. Cantor's World
Where Tax Cuts Provide Brains, a Heart and Courage



Really, does anyone other than a mindless Republican believe that?  And what about the 2010 Debt Commission.  Mr. Cantor blasts the President for not adopting its recommendations when Mr. Cantor himself voted against them.  (roll out the Hypocrisy Trophy).  And when it comes to policy it's “our way or the highway”

But he has also made clear that he would never support the type of structural changes to Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security needed to make these programs solvent as envisioned in our budget 

Ignoring the fact that the President was the one who put cuts in both Social Security and Medicare on the table.

So one leaves this diatribe wondering whether or not Republicans have any constructive ideas on fixing the economy, but thinking that if they did, they probably wouldn’t propose them anyway.  If the economy recovers Mr. Obama and the Democrats might get some of the credit, and that price is just too high for Republicans to pay for a better economy.

Mitt Romney’s Credibility Problem with the Business Community – The Problem: He Doesn’t Have Any

Gee Wonder Why That Is?

Earlier this month, despite the opposition by the major Republican Presidential candidates including Mitt Romney the debt ceiling/deficit reduction package was passed by a bi-partisan vote in the Congress and signed into law by President Obama.  The legislation prevented a U. S. default on its debt, and while no one knows exactly what that would have meant, it would probably not have been a good thing.

In fact, as the Financial Times has noted, even the prospect of a default was upsetting to the business community.

The business community, and particularly Wall Street banks, may have been spooked this summer by how close the US veered to a default in large part because of the intransigence of Republicans in the House of Representatives, who have said they are intent on shrinking the size of government above any other priority.

So has this cooled the romance between Wall Street and the Republicans.  Of course not.

there is little evidence to suggest that the debacle is causing business to hold back their support for the Grand Old Party or any of the slate of Republican contenders who are tripping over themselves in a rush to appease the most radical elements of their par

Why not, well the Republicans, headed by the perennial flip flopper Mitt Romney simply are not believed.



Take Two of These for Romneyitis
and Call the Doctor in the Morning



the pro-Republican business community knows that the candidates have to bluff in order to gain headway in the gruelling nomination contest and that comments that seem radical, including Mr Romney’s apparent willingness to allow the nation to default, are taken with a grain of salt.

Translation:  We know you are lying Mr. Romney in order to get the nomination.  We trust you will come back to sanity if you are elected.

Why exactly the business community would want to support someone whose verbal integrity is so lacking was not explained.

The interesting thing is how naive the business community is.  They do not understand that many, maybe a large majority of Republicans believe the anti-government rethoric they are spouting.  If Mr. Romney or Mr. Perry takes office, they may want to reverse their positions to more reasonable ones, but they will have lost control of the Congress.

If a Republican is elected, at first the removal of government regulations will spur the economy, and give the false aurora of success.  But over time the economy will degenerate to what Mark Twain termed "the gilded age". 

The lesson that was learned in the late 19th and early 20th centuries is that unregulated capitalism is one of the worst, most destructive social-political-economic systems every invented, but that regulated capitalism is the best.  Business, along with many voters may have to learn this lesson all over again.

New Immigration Policy Put in Place: If You Came or Were Brought to the United States When You Were Under 16 and Have Not Gotten in Trouble, Your Case Will Not Be Pursued

Using the Justice System to Promote, Of All Things, Justice

Earlier the Obama Administration announced that it would review on a case by case basis the situation of any individual who came illegally to the U. S. before they were 16.  If the individual is found to have been a model resident of this country, their immigration case will have very low priority.

In addition to be a decent and humane action, there is a practical matter for doing this.



Jason Henry for The New York Times

In Florida, Manuel Guerra, center, has been fighting

 deportation for five years. His case was among the first suspended.



Homeland Security officials said Monday that their goal is to quickly identify noncriminals on swollen immigration court dockets and close those cases, clearing the way for speedier removals of gang members, drug traffickers or foreigners who repeatedly return after being deported. Wait times for a hearing in immigration courts can now be as long as 18 months.

Republicans as expected are outraged.

           



Republican leaders reacted to Mr. Obama’s new policy by stepping up their rejection of his approach. Representative Peter T. King of New York, chairman of the Homeland Security Committee in the House, said the president was making “a blatant attempt to grant amnesty to potentially millions of illegal aliens in this country,” which he called “totally unacceptable.”



Typical Republican "outraged" at learning that
the Obama Administration Will Move Deporting
Criminals Ahead of Deporting Children



but readers will notice that nowhere in Mr. King’s statement does he say why he would object to Homeland Security giving a priority to ejecting illegal immigrants who are gang members, drug dealers or repeat offenders.  Maybe given some time he can come up with a reason why those types should not be moved to the head of the deportation line.

Finally one more bit of good news in this story.

the announcement appeared to signal an end to efforts by the White House to court some of its Republican opponents, with administration officials acknowledging those efforts have failed and there is little chance for broad immigration legislation to pass before elections next year.

Great, maybe reality with respect to the Republican opposition is finally gaining a seat at the table at the White House strategy sessions. 

Parsons Can Live Tax Free in Homes Provided by Church? - Well, It Depends Upon What the Word “Home” Means

 Gosh,  It Doesn’t Seem That Hard

Although the U. S. Constitution forbids the establishment of a state religion, it does not forbid various tax breaks for members of the clergy.  One of these tax breaks is the right to receive a housing allowance or the right to live in church provided housing without have to pay income tax on the benefit.



What We Think the Congress Had
in Mind for a Parsonage Allowance



Under a provision of the tax code known as the parsonage allowance, first passed in 1921, an ordained clergy member may live tax-free in a home owned by his or her religious organization or receive a tax-free annual payment to buy or rent a home if the congregation approves.

Now this does not seem unreasonable on its face, after all the clergy provide a public service and if their congregation wants to provide them with a small cottage in which to live, it seems ok not to tax the clergy on the value of housing, something that would be taxable to any other person.

The question of whether or not a clergy may live in multiple homes tax free would not seem to be an issue.  Churches are not wealthy, and for many of them just providing one home for their clergy would  be taxing (no pun intended) their resources.  But of course there is always somebody.

The U.S. Tax Court ruled that Phil Driscoll, an ordained minister and Grammy Award-winning trumpeter who went to prison for tax evasion, didn't owe federal income taxes on $408,638 provided to him by his ministry to buy a second home on a lake near Cleveland, Tenn.

Leaving aside the issue of an ordained minister going to jail for tax evasion (tax evasion does seem outside the normal ministry doesn’t it), and how he got $408,000 from his ministry to buy a second home, what is the court’s reasoning here?



What Some Clergy Call a Parsonage



In a 7-6 ruling, a panel of Tax Court judges sided with Mr. Driscoll's argument that the word "home" is equivalent to "homes," just as "child" is interpreted to mean "children" elsewhere in the tax code.



You can see the confusion.  For example, Mrs. Dismal Political Economist thinks she has only one home, even after The Dismal Political Economist pointed out to her that her “home” means “homes” and that she should be satisfied with the many "homes" she has.

Well, for those who want to “reform” the tax code, seems like the Tax Court has pointed out a good place to start.

Mr. Obama Gets Some Good Polling News

No Thanks to Mr. Obama

President Obama’s poll ratings are and should be expected to be dismal.  In the last month he has engaged in a disastrous debt ceiling/deficit reduction  battle with the Republicans in Congress, the 2^nd quarter GDP growth numbers were very low, unemployment has risen, inflation looks like it is moving up, the stock market is in an uncontrolled series of ups and downs, and his approval in terms of handling the economy, the key issue in politics these days is below 30%. 

Yet when matched up against leading Republican candidates (and Ron Paul) the President runs about even. 

How can this be? 

.

 Under any normal circumstances pundits would be calling the 2012 race over and the Republicans candidates would be thinking about who is going to be the next Secretary of State.

The answer is that these are not normal conditions, at least not for the Republican party.  The slate of potential Republican nominees is so lacking in quality, is so lacking in inspiration, is so lacking in perceived competence that the best they can do at this, the lowest point so far of the Obama Presidency is to tie the President.  Given the closeness of the vote totals for all of the Republican candidates, one must conclude their support is not for them alone but in reaction against Mr. Obama.

Sorry Republicans, but right now no one really likes you, voter just indicate support so show displeasure with the President.

 

If Jon Huntsman, with his relatively moderate positions (for a Republican), his foreign policy experience as Ambassador to China and his administrative experience as Governor of Utah was better known and the potential nominee for the Republicans he would be leading Mr. Obama by 20 points or so.

So keep it up Tea Party folks, Wall Street Journal editorial writers, National Review and Weekly Standard articles all with your over the top rhetoric, and you may yet cause a most improbable re-election.  Mr. Obama and the Democrats are counting on you.

Greece to Europe: Your Policy is Not Working and It is Highly Damaging

Europe to Greece:  Our New Policy Won’t Work Either, And It will be More Highly Damaging

The Dismal Political Economist to Europe:  You Cannot Create Prosperity Out of Austerity

The Dismal Political Economist has earlier discussed the European policy towards Greece.  The policy’s goal is the restore the Greek economy and its fiscal condition so that Greece will not need to be bailout out by the European community and so that Greece can return to private debt markets to borrow the money to finance its government. 

The Dismal Political Economist called this policy “Non Lethal Suicide” because it not only doomed the Greek economy to prolonged recession, it also had the effect when implemented elsewhere to dragging down the European economy.  And it is not even accomplishing its primary goal, to balance the Greek budget. 

The response to Europe to the lack of success of their policy - keep doing it.  The result in Greece is a deterioration of  economic life that is becoming staggering to its citizens.  Greek Cuts Erode Livelihoods

  

One in four retailers in central Athens has closed, according to the National Confederation of Greek Commerce, a retailer group. Similar closure rates are hitting Greece's other urban areas.

The Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry reports that some 80,000 businesses across Greece have gone bankrupt since the crisis erupted in early 2010, and it forecasts that on current trends, some 200,000 will close by the end of next year. "I'm beginning to fear that the 200,000 projection may prove to be conservative," said Chamber President Constantine Michalos.

There is also this scene



A Supermarket for some of Greece's
Elderly



Visitors to Athens outdoor markets routinely notice older people picking over unsold fruit and vegetables that merchants have thrown into garbage cans.

From Germany comes this observation about the European policy towards Greece by Wolfgang Franz, Chairman of the independent Council of Economic Advisers to the federal government

These are hard measures that they are implementing and I wouldn't like to imagine the reaction if we had to implement them in Germany."

He said it may take "up to 10 years to get Greece back on its feet,"

Europe needs to change its policy, but that would require admitting they had the wrong policy in the first place, so to save face Europe will soldier on.  Greece may not.

The War on Poverty Starts Again, Chris Christie Cannot Run, Mitt Romney Plans a Palace . . .

Stating the Obvious, Because Someone Has To





A Early Casualty in the War on the Poor



Remember the War on Poverty?  That war was against poverty, a war to reduce on eliminate poverty from American society.  Now the “War on Poverty” is a war against the poor. 

 The Republicans support programs to raise taxes on low income people, reduce unemployment benefits, shift senior health care costs to seniors, privatize Social Security, eliminate aid to education and the like that will all have the impact of making those with lower income have more lower income.



The Rich are the Home Team
The Poor Are the Guests, But Not for Long



If you are a betting person, take the Rich, even if you have to give points.  It's pretty likely that the Rich are going to win the War on Poverty, and more than cover the spread




Is there any Republican politician in the country who is too radical to win the electoral votes of Mississippi, Alabama, Utah, Wyoming or North Dakota.  Really, any?

Does Sarah Palin not realize her act of teasing about entering the Presidential race is getting old?  Does she not know it is going to close out of town, and not even make it to a Broadway opening?

After defending a Muslim he appointed as judge, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey has now stated that global warming exists.  Will everyone now believe it when he says he is not running for the Republican nomination for President?

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has positioned himself as the “moderate” in the Republican race for the nomination. He expressed support for science and says he believe in evolution.  Come on Mr. Huntsman, it’s like you are not even trying any more. 

If Mr. Huntsman continues in this vein he will earn the admiration of The Dismal Political Economists and the votes of the 22 Republican primary voters who have been classified as the moderate wing of the Republican party.



Mitt to Mrs. Mitt:  Where is this one?

 

Reports are out that Mitt Romney is building a huge new luxury residence in La Jolla, California to go with his other huge luxury residences.  Note to Mitt, be sure and keep track of how many houses you have, you might even want to write the number on your palm for future debates.



Hewlett Packard introduced its Touch Pad tablet to much fanfare.  It abandoned its Touch Pad to even greater fanfare, along with a 20% drop in the price of its stock.  To get rid of the thing HP is selling them for $99.00.  At that price they are a big seller.  The failure of the product will probably result in bonuses for top HP management being only “huge” instead of “humongous”.  Here's an idea, how about this, pay this year’s bonuses in Touch Pad’s instead of cash.

Like everyone else, New York Times political guru Nate Silver notes that Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are tanking.  Why is this news?  On the postive side, Mr. Silver notes that Mr. Obama could make history.

If Mr. Obama’s approval ratings remain near the 40 percent mark or below for the rest of August and September, he has a chance to move up the list of historically significant declines.



Germany and France are the two strongest economic powers of Europe, and they are cooperating with each other in an unprecedented manner to try and solve Europe’s economic problems.  They have not engaged in warfare in over 65 years, the longest period of peace between the two nations since 14,654 B. C. to 13, 561 B. C. when the 20 people living in France did not fight with the 42 people living in Germany for over a 70 year period, primarily because the two groups were each lost in the forests for over seven decades.

(The truce ended when the Germans insisted on staging Wagnerian operas within three miles of the French border.)

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman suggested that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is Unelectable. 

Here is the reaction of Mr. Perry

Does anyone think Mr. Perry’s response was inappropriate?

Well, no one in Texas at least.

The Views of an Intelligent Outsider: Clive Crook and the Financial Times



An Objective Opinion from an Objective Source



The Illustration Accompanying Mr. Crook's Article
No We Don't Completely Understand it Either



The Dismal Political Economist has long believed that the further from the problem an observer can be, the more objective and useful is the opinion of that observer.  Clive Crook is the Washington correspondent for the London based Financial Times.  His critiques of the U. S. political and economic situation are almost always more valuable than any domestic writer.

Mr. Crook’s most recent comments are under the headline

The unelectable appeal of Rick Perry

And his piece starts out with this, which neatly summarizes the situation.

Some months ago, I speculated that the US election of 2012 could match a failed incumbent against an unelectable challenger. The odds on this scenario have shortened.

On Mr. Obama he says

The president, before starting his own vacation, was on a campaign-style bus tour of the Midwest. He said the economy was not in danger of falling back into recession.

Few were reassured. Did he have some new initiative to promote? No, but he promised to have one when Congress got back. A new Gallup poll showed that barely one-quarter of voters now approve of his handling of the economy.






 

The entrance of Mr. Perry was described this way

 The Texan has more charisma than the rest of the GOP field together – too much for his own good. Eager and overconfident, he is capable of saying astonishingly stupid things, as he proved immediately.

The conclusion

a 14-month campaign that divides the country even more deeply, adds to uncertainty about long-term economic policy, fails to resolve anything but paralyses government in the meantime, all with the economy sliding back into recession, is not a good plan.

So from Mr. Crook’s position can Mr. Perry win the election and set the U. S. on a new course radically different than what has occurred the last 80 years?  Can Mr. Perry be President?  Mr. Crook’s final words say no,





Reagan and Carter Not
Obama and Perry



Arresting as the parallel may seem, Mr Perry cannot be Ronald Reagan to Mr Obama’s Jimmy Carter.

but his instinct says “maybe”.

Voters in the US are close to despair about the federal government’s dysfunction. They do not believe Washington can be mended. If possible, they would like it ploughed under. Mr Perry perfectly expresses this sentiment.