Minnesota Agrees to Pay Over One Half Billion $ For Football Stadium for Mega Wealthy Team Owner

Teachers Fired Earlier This Year; Homeless, Indigent, Disabled and Mentally Ill All Ecstatic Agreement was Reached

Minnesota is a wonderful state.  The countryside is dotted with lakes, the people polite, hard working and hospitable and the politics sensible, or rather they used to be.  But in 2002 the state elected a Republican Governor, who left the state 8 years later with a multi-billion dollar deficit.  Even worse, in 2010 the voters put Republicans in control of the legislature, and a weak Democrat in the Governor’s mansion.

The resulting budget impasse led to a shutdown of non-essential state services this past summer, until the Governor caved and allowed massive cuts in social programs and education rather than force the legislature to enact slightly higher taxes on the wealthy.  But this was not the real issue in Minnesota, the real issue was how to build a stadium for their pro football team, or more importantly, how to divert critical public monies to finance that stadium.

Now at last there is agreement in Minnesota on the state’s contribution to building the stadium.  The state’s tab, $500 million and counting. 

A $975 million stadium on the Metrodome site could open as early as the 2016 season, but only if Dayton and other backers can persuade legislators to vote for a $398 million state subsidy and get council members to agree to the diversion of $150 million in hospitality taxes without going to a referendum.

Okay, let’s take a look at what is said in the above paragraph.  First of all the state must provide a $398 million subsidy, which it turns out is coming from a new lottery type game.

The state plans to issue bonds for its share of stadium costs and pay them off with gambling profits from electronic pulltabs. Legislators must change the law to allow bars and restaurants to operate handheld gambling devices.

Yes, you are reading that correctly.  The state is going to not only introduce more gambling into the state, but they are going to use the state’s share of revenues to build a football stadium for a very wealthy team owner.  But since the state is coming up with the majority of the costs doesn’t that mean it will get a lot of non-ticket revenue from the stadium?  Yeah, right.

The Vikings would keep all revenue from NFL events, including concessions and club seat and suite revenue. It also would get the money from naming rights and advertising on the stadium site.

And yes, the $150 million is going to be “diverted”, although no one states whose funds are going to be cut, or how they are going to be made up.  That’s just a detail for those awful educators and people who need government assistance to worry about.

But notice the real news here, the legislature and city council has to get the funding approved without going to the voters for approval.  Why not, well one can only assume that if the voters were given a vote they would almost certainly not approve a gift of $550 million to one of the wealthiest citizens of the state.  So, let’s make sure they don’t vote.

The Democratic Governor of the state is very wealthy himself, and obviously he wants to be able to attend the games in style.  As for the millions of citizens who will fund the stadium, but be unable to afford the ticket prices, well, if they didn’t want the stadium they should have voted NO in the referendum.  Oh wait . .

French Presidential Candidate Francois Hollande Proves Political Idiocy is Not Limited to Conservatives

Proposed Tax Rate of 75% on High Incomes Gets Prize for Stupid Idea of the Week

The French Presidential election that will take place next month is pitting incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy against Socialist Francois Hollande (and a host of others in the first round).  Mr. Sarkozy is the center right candidate, and Mr. Hollande, as is obvious from his party affiliation is the candidate of the center left.  The key element here in France, as in the United States, is the term “center”.  Voters will reject candidates too far to either extreme so candidates have to rush to the center.  This phenomena will take place later this year in the United States.



Which one is the Socialist Candidate for
the Presidency of France and Which One is the Goat?
Hard to Tell



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So one wonders what possible motive Mr. Hollande would have for proposing at top tax rate of 75%.  But that is what he has done.

French presidential front-runner François Hollande said taxpayers earning over €1 million ($1.35 million) a year would be subjected to a special 75% tax bracket should he be elected, underscoring heightened interest across Europe in raising taxes on the wealthiest individuals

This policy is not for the purpose of increasing revenue, unlike the United States it appears there are just not a whole lot of French taxpayers who would be subjected to the new levy.

According to a 2009 French Senate study, the 0.01% richest French taxpayers, or 3,523 households, had an average yearly revenue of €1.22 million.

"It's a populist measure, because it concerns very few people and it's not going to bring a significant amount of money into the public coffers," said Emiliano Grossman, a political-science professor at Sciences Po in Paris.

so all that happens is that Mr. Hollande is depicted as an out of control leftist.

Of course, like the United States the wealthy taxpayers in France are able to evade the high de jure tax rates anyway

The wealthiest taxpayers usually manage to cut their overall tax rate substantially. In France, the wealthiest 0.1% of taxpayers have an overall tax rate of 17.5%, according to the 2009 study.

So it is hard to see how a high, punitive rate will correct those abuses.  But it will do substantial damage to Mr. Hollande’s campaign.  Mr. Hollande is a newcomer to Presidential politics in France, and if this policy is a sample of his rhetoric his stay is not likely to be long.

Super Tuesday Is Not All That Super – Only Four Contests Matter as Virginia Has Been Rigged for Romney

“Rigged for Romney” – There’s a Nice Campaign Theme

The Super Tuesday concept in primaries evolved some elections cycles ago when a lot of states had their primaries grouped together.  This year Super Tuesday is on a Tuesday, no surprise there, but its importance is not really all that great.  This time the number of states that matter on Super Tuesday is sharply reduced.

This year only five states would be critical here, Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia and Virginia.  Of the five, Virginia is probably the most significant because it is a relatively neutral battleground between Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum.  The state would be a real test of the popularity of either candidate. 

However, as it turned out Mr. Santorum’s inept campaign (along with Mr. Gingrich’s inept campaign) did not get enough signatures on petitions to get on the ballot.  Virginia’s Republican controlled government could still have placed Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich on the ballot, but the Governor, Robert McDonnell is lusting after the VP position (that VP means Vice President not Vaginal Probe) so he refused to intercede and allow a real race. Once again Conservatives show they are willing to sacrifice this democracy thing to achieve their goals.

So Mr. Romney will win Virginia by default, although that will not prevent him from claiming an historic victory in the state.  Mitt, like many politicians, does very well when he is unopposed.

Oklahoma is important because it is very conservative and Mr. Santorum needs to win in that state to maintain credibility.  He is also favored, so a loss would be not only a real loss, but a loss relative to expectations.  Expect Mr. Santorum to win Oklahoma.

In Tennessee the situation is similar to Oklahoma.  Mr. Santorum needs to win there to couple his expected Oklahoma win to show that he can win more than one important state on Super Tuesday.  The race here in the Volunteer state is likely to be close and tied to turnout.

Georgia is only important to Newt Gingrich, because he needs to win his home state to avoid being a laughing stock of the campaign.  Actually, that is not entirely true since he is likely to be a laughing stock even if he wins Georgia.  Polls show Mr. Gingrich with a solid lead, so the interest here is really in who finishes second and by how much.  A third place finish by Mr. Romney, along with losses in Oklahoma and Tennessee will lead to questions about his appeal in the real South (no, Florida is not the real South, although parts of it are.  The parts won by Mr. Gingrich)

Winning Georgia would be a real tragedy for Mr. Gingrich.  A loss would allow him to exit the race.  A win will mean he stays in, losing more credibility, spending more money he does not have, and subjecting him again and again to the ridicule of the public and the press.  A loss would be a mercy killing for his campaign.  For those of us who feel Mr. Gingrich does not deserve the dignity of a graceful leave of the battle for the nomination, a win in George will not bother us.

This takes us to Ohio, where the real action is.  The polls are probably not very reliable and the most that anyone can say at this point is that the race is probably a tossup.  Turnout as measured by early voting is down in the state, and a messy fight over the leadership of the Republican party in the state also clouds the issue.  The conventional wisdom is that Ohio is leaning to Mr. Santorum and that he will be helped by low turnout.  Conventional wisdom is often wrong. 

Rush Limbaugh Cannot Even Get an Apology Right – Probably Because Despite the Many Reasons to Do So, He Has Never Done One

And Let’s See What His Advertisers Do

For the past week much of the news has been on the personal attacks that Conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh made against a Georgetown University Law student who attempted to present an argument in favor of requiring health insurance companies to provide contraception coverage with no co-pay.  This forum has not commented thus far on the controversy, because it has been well covered by other, more effective communicators.

But now we have Mr. Limbaugh engaged in offering an apology.  Really.  This is what he says.

“My choice of words was not the best, and in the attempt to be humorous, I created a national stir,” Limbaugh said on his website. “I sincerely apologize to Ms. Fluke for the insulting word choices.”

which sounds reasonable enough, but then Mr. Limbaugh goes on to make this incredible statement.

Limbaugh said in his statement. “In this instance, I chose the wrong words in my analogy of the situation. I did not mean a personal attack on Ms. Fluke.”

Really, he didn’t mean his comments like this

“What does it say about the college coed ... who goes before a congressional committee and essentially says that she must be paid to have sex? It makes her a slut, right? It makes her a prostitute. She wants to be paid to have sex.”

were a personal attack???  We know Mr. Limbaugh’s regular listeners are of limited intelligence, but hey Rush, the rest of us are smarter than them.  We know what you meant.

And what Mr. Limbaugh meant was to unleash a vicious personal attack as a form of intimidation, sending the message that should anyone else who is not a public figure advocate positions contrary to Conservatives, they would be the victim of an unrelenting verbal assault on them personally.

So what was the motivation for Mr. Limbaugh’s so-called apology?  How about this.

Some advertisers began pulling sponsorship of Limbaugh’s show and Republicans distanced themselves from the comments..

and it was hard to see how any normal companies could remain associated with the show.

Now the interesting thing will be to see how many advertisers do stay with Mr. Limbaugh and if any of those who left return.  This is course is a battle of money vs. doing the right thing.  Advertising on Mr. Limbaugh’s show is probably very effective at getting a message to his audience, and companies will be loathe to give that up.  On the other hand, staying with Mr. Limbaugh will result in the rest of us loathing them.

This is a free country, and advertisers have every right to sponsor Mr. Limbaugh.  But this is a free country, and the rest of us have every right not to purchase products from companies that support Mr. Limbaugh.  Such a boycott is not an attack on free speech, it is an attack on hate speech.

Texas High School Athletic Association for Private Schools Won’t Accommodate

War on Religion Has Another Casualty – But This Time Don’t Expect Outrage from Mr. Santorum or Mr. Romney or Mr. Gingrich


[Update:  The game was rescheduled.  Beren Academy lost, as did the petty dictators of the group that controls private school athletics in Texas.]

Republicans say giving employers the right to deny health care coverage for anything that morally offends the employer is not about eliminating family planning services and products from employer sponsored health care plans (it is, but that’s another story).  It is, according to its sponsors accommodating religious freedom.  See the right to deny needed health care services to others because it violates your tenets is what religious freedom is all about.

Of course when the situation involves a different religion, then the outraged are a lot less outraged.  Case in point is the private school organization that controls high school athletics in Texas.  It seems they will not accommodate a member school whose religion recognizes the Sabbath on Friday night to Saturday night.

A Texas high school athletic association is facing pressure from the mayor of Houston and criticism from a former N.B.A. coach over its handling of an Orthodox Jewish day school that is no longer scheduled to play its state semifinal boys basketball game because the players observe the Sabbath.

Yes, for some reason this policy is drawing criticism.  Here’s the problem.

The school, the Robert M. Beren Academy in Houston, won its regional championship last weekend to advance to the state semifinals in Dallas on Friday. The game against the Covenant School of Dallas is scheduled for 9 p.m. Beren Academy appealed to the Texas Association of Private and Parochial Schools, or Tapps, the group that organizes the tournament, to have the time of the game changed. Tapps denied the appeal.

Of course this doesn’t affect every religion.   They have a very specific provision protecting the religions that regard Sunday at the Sabbath.

Mayor Annise D. Parker of Houston said she was “very disappointed” about the decision, in a letter to the association’s director Tuesday.

“It is also my understanding that Tapps teams are not allowed to play any sports on Sundays,” Parker wrote. “Which I presume is out of respect for the Christian Sabbath.”

The organization posted a statement on its Web site on Wednesday that said it was adhering to its bylaws, which were written in the late 1970’s, when “the member schools at that time all recognized Sunday as the day of worship.”

Of course the Association in control is playing the “slippery slope” card,

Edd Burleson, the director of Tapps, said Monday that schedule changes in the past have created problems for other schools. “If we solve one problem, we create another problem,” he said.

you  know, you accommodate Jewish kids and next thing you know Muslims will think their religion is just as important as the others.  Everybody else is trying to be accommodating,

Three of the other schools that would be directly affected by a schedule change have agreed to reschedule, said Samantha Steinberg, director of admissions and marketing at Beren Academy. She added that Beren Academy agreed to pick up costs related to changing the time of the game.

“There has been a nationwide outpouring of donations and support,” Steinberg said. “Hundreds of letters have come in from people of all denominations.”

Representatives of the Covenant School, the team that Beren Academy was scheduled to play Friday evening, said they were open to rescheduling.

But the rational  people in this case are dealing with a group of petty officials, the kind we have all met who see any common sense solution as a threat to them.  But here’s a warning for them, just wait till the religious fanatics in the Republican party here about this attack on religious freedom.  

Okay, they have a long wait.

The Keystone XL Pipeline That Republicans Blame President Obama for Blocking is Starting to Be Built

But Don’t Tell Republicans – They Still Want to Blame Mr. Obama for Blocking It Even as it is being Constructed

With the advent of oil drilling and oil from tar sands in Canada and the northern states in Midwest America a proposal was developed for building a pipeline that would take the oil to the Gulf Coast refineries.  Because the pipeline would go across a very sensitive aquifer in states like Nebraska, it became environmentally controversial.  Over Republican objectives President Obama has postponed approval of the pipeline until 2013.

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The issue has given the Republicans the opportunity to label Mr. Obama as anti-energy, which would be correct except for a couple of pesky facts that get in the way of that position.  First of all is the fact that everyone expects the XL Keystone pipeline to be built once environmental safeguards can be developed.

The Obama administration said then that TransCanada was free to resubmit the application, and TransCanada said Monday it intended to do so. . . .TransCanada executives and Canadian officials have said they expect approval for the whole project eventually. But the company has pushed back an estimated completion date until 2015, about a year later than previously planned.

A second major point is that part of the pipeline, the part that goes from Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast is going to be built, and that the Obama administration approves that.

TransCanada Corp. said Monday it will move ahead with the U.S. Gulf Coast portion of its contentious Keystone XL oil pipeline, a move expected to help ease a Midwest supply glut even as Washington delays a decision on the bigger project until after the presidential election this year.

The 435-mile leg, envisioned to run from the U.S. storage hub of Cushing, Okla., to refineries in Texas, will cost $2.3 billion to build, TransCanada said. The Calgary-based firm said the segment will transport 700,000 barrels of oil a day and could be completed by the middle of 2013.

Not only that, but another pipeline, one that sends oil from Texas to the Midwest (for some reason) is going to be modified so that the flow will be reversed.

Late last year, rival Canadian pipeline company Enbridge Inc. bought a 50% stake in a different pipeline, the Seaway, which had shipped oil from Texas to Cushing. Enbridge plans to reverse Seaway's flow, sending 150,000 barrels of oil a day southward by the middle of 2012. It plans to expand that flow to as much as 500,000 barrels a day, with 400,000 barrels expected by next year.

So the supposedly anti-energy Presidency of Barack Obama is going to have major pipeline construction and modifications that will increase the availability of oil and lower the cost of energy.  Don’t expect the Republicans to acknowledge this, which is ok, but don’t expect the mainstream media to call them out on their false accusations, which is not ok.

Looking for Good Polling Data in the Upcoming Republican Primaries – Don’t

Five Thirty Eight Confirms Lack of Accuracy

The ability to forecast what will happen in the Republican primary races is weak.  It just cannot be done.  There are several reasons for this.  One is that primary polls are often taken by folks who are really not good a polling.  A second is that the race for the Republican nomination is very dynamic, it changes with each new result.  And finally, it seems like a lot of voters have just not made up their minds, and do not do so until they are just about ready to vote.

All of this is confirmed by an analysis of polling errors by Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver. 

The short version: the polls have been reasonably good in the last few days before the election. Not perfect by any means — worse than general election polling typically is, for example. But no worse, and probably somewhat better, than in past primaries. . . .

On the other hand, the polls have been pretty awful at most points prior to about three days before the election, seeing surges and momentum shifts that often dissipated.

Here is where Mr. Silver thinks the all important election in Ohio stands before the weekend.  Note:  This data is largely meaningless

Ohio Mar. 6	VOTE  PROJECTION	CHANCE  OF WIN
Rick Santorum	38.3%	81%
Mitt Romney	30.4	19
Newt Gingrich	18.0	0

The results are based on old polling which has large errors.  If the race actually turns out this way it is pure coincidence.

So at this point the polling and the projections for Super Tuesday (which is not all that Super, Ohio being the main contest after Virginia would not let Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich on the ballot, thus rigging the election for Mr. Romney) are not any good.  In fact, everyone is going to have to do this the old fashioned way, that is, actually wait for the results to be in, for the votes to be counted before we will all know who won.

Gosh, that’s a terrible way to have elections.

Fox News Owner’s U. K. Publication Accused of Massive Bribery

But Fox News and the Wall Street Journal Doesn’t Report, So You Cannot Decide



Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

News Corp. has settled dozens of claims

 in recent months, including with Welsh singer

 Charlotte Church, above, on Monday.



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It has been a while since we visited the press scandal in Britain involving Fox New Parent Corporation’s publications there.  One publication, News of the World was found to have extensively hacked the phones and phone messages of various people in the U. K. including  a teen age murder victim.  As a result that newspaper has been shut down and ongoing criminal investigations are taking place.

The controlling interest in the News Corporation is held by Rupert Murdoch, a man who uses his U. S. Fox News Channel to support Republicans and the Conservative movement. Anyone who has viewed that channel on a regular basis knows that the reporting is unfair and biased, reflecting the owner’s interest in influencing public opinion rather than reporting the news.

But in England the newspapers, like The Sun are trying to report news and trying to get scoops.  As a result, this is what happened according to the Wall Street Journal, another of Mr. Murdoch’s publications.

The U.K. police official leading criminal probes into alleged wrongdoing at News Corp.'s U.K. newspaper operations said that the company's tabloid, the Sun, had a "culture…of illegal payments" by journalists to a wide array of public officials.

This is not just a case of a reporter giving a few quid to an official for some inside info, that sort of thing goes on all the time and is pretty much condoned.  No, it is this.

"There appears to have been a culture at the Sun of illegal payments, and systems have been created to facilitate such payments whilst hiding the identity of the officials receiving the money," Ms. Akers said. She said authorization for the payments were made at "a senior level within the newspaper."

So doesn’t the Wall Street Journal get credit for reporting the story.  Well, no.  The story is buried in the second section, along with a single sentence buried in the story that says this

News Corp. also owns The Wall Street Journal.

And Mr. Murdoch does not deny the allegations, but in a statement (left out of the on line story but in the print version) Mr. Murdoch says he vows to get to the bottom of this and the practices are no longer taking place, so presumably everything is ok.  Like the bank robber Willie Sutton who is no longer robbing banks, so everything is ok.

Conservatives are of course the folks who proclaim they support family values.  That’s great, and maybe they will actually get some one day.

The Difference Between Warren Buffett and Politicians – When Mr. Buffett is Wrong He Admits He was Wrong

Refreshing Candor from a Man The Wall Street Journal Hates

Warren Buffett through no fault of his own is a controversial figure.  A multi-billionaire, he has enraged Conservatives by daring to propose that wealthy people pay more in taxes.  A rapacious businessman, he has decided that most (but not all) of his vast fortune will go to charity.  An unassuming man who still lives in Omaha, he regards himself as a fountain of wisdom (which he generally is).

In his latest communication to investors in his company, Mr. Buffett admits that he made a mistake.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Saturday that he was "dead wrong" with a prediction that the U.S. housing market would begin to recover by now, but that he remained optimistic about the nation's economy.

In his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett said he was sure housing would recover eventually and help bring down the nation's unemployment rate. But he did not predict when that might happen.

This type of mistake is costly to a business that relies in part on the construction industry.

The housing prediction proved painful for Berkshire Hathaway. It owns more than 80 subsidiaries, including Geico insurance company and See's Candy, and five of them rely heavily on construction activity.

And Mr. Buffett rightly states that eventually the housing industry will recover

In the letter, Buffett said housing "remains in a depression of its own," but he predicted, in typical plain-spoken style, that the housing market would come back because some human factors can't be denied forever.

"People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over," he wrote. "And while 'doubling up' may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure."

In the meantime Mr. Buffett will just have to be content to know that his name now adorns a basic economic fairness principle, the “Buffett Rule” which states that very wealthy people should  pay at least 30% of their income in taxes.  You can see why that would infuriate the Conservatives, many of whom think the rest of us should pay all of the taxes and let the rich pay none as an expression of our gratitude for the rich being rich.

The Lost Decade – United States Economy Has Given Back 10 Years of Economic Progress

Time to Party Like Its 2002

For those who have been economically successful in the United States for most of their lives, the economic and financial progress has been steadily upward.  In fact, a majority of U. S. residents have experienced a life where each year brings higher income, a more expensive automobile, a better house, and an overall higher standard of living.  Vacations have increased from one week to three or four, and camping has given way to resorts. 

Most of those people who have enjoyed this success would argue that there is some unwritten rule that says economic conditions, at least for them, must improve every year.  Alas there is no such rule.  There is no guarantee that future generations will have better lives than current generations.  In fact, over the last decade the level of economic conditions has actually regressed, and on average most western economies are lower today than they were a decade or so ago.

The Economist magazine has developed  a set of measurements to determine the extent to which an economy has advanced or declined, and if it has declined, to what year it has declined back to.

In order to assess how much economic progress it has undone, The Economist has constructed a measure of lost time for hard-hit countries. It shows that Greece’s economic clock has been turned back furthest: it has been rewound by over 12 years. Elsewhere in the euro area, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain have lost seven years or more. Britain, the first country forced to rescue a credit-crunched bank, has lost eight years. America, where the trouble started, has lost ten        

Looking at the economy in terms of real GDP per person, which is the best measure of income per person adjusted for inflation and population growth we have this.

A different measure of GDP is needed to see how well consumers are doing. Inflation needs to be stripped out since it is higher output, not higher prices, that make people better off. Population growth also needs to be taken into account, since living standards are best measured on a per-person basis. Measured by real GDP per person a third of the 184 countries the IMF collects data for are poorer than they were in 2007. These 61 countries have each lost at least five years.

Some have not yet learned the lesson that economic growth is not inevitable.  The IMF is one of them.

The IMF predicts that in three years Italy will be the only G7 country with real GDP lower than in 2007. Within this group, America, which is already growing again, is in a better position than Britain, which is not.

But exactly why that would be the case is not clear.  It is certainly not the situation in Europe

Unlike income and GDP, there is no reason why unemployment statistics should improve year on year. But many advanced countries had managed to reduce joblessness to new lows in the years before 2007. The crisis blew all those gains away. In America the unemployment rate stands at 8.3% of the labour force, its 1983 level. In Britain it is at its worst for 17 years.

And what policy is Europe implementing.  They are putting programs that will reduce rather than increase growth.  The spectacular failure of Britain’s policy has resulted in even more austerity, and austerity in France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece can only make things worse.  Ireland is the only place of hope, not because of policy but because it is a small country whose economy may recover due to exports. 

But one of the few absolutes in economics is that not every country can have a trade surplus.  Really, it is, you can look it up. 

Like Their Presidential Hopeful Counterparts, the Republican VP Candidates are Also Self Destructing

Don’t Anybody Here No How to Play This Game?

As the Republican class of 2012 works its way towards the inevitable nomination of Mitt Romney for President, the race for the junior spot on the ticket seems to mimic the race for the senior slot.  The four major contenders for the VP position along side of Mr. Romney (or if political junkies get really lucky, Mr. Santorum) is also pretty interesting in a macabre sort of way.  Here is the status of the four major contenders.

Fla. Sen. Marco Rubio:

Sen. Rubio was the leading contender for the VP.  His Hispanic background, his immigrant background as his family fled Castro’s Cuba and his appeal to social conservatives along with his possible ability to deliver Florida to the GOP all made him an ideal candidate.  That is, until it turned out his story of his family fleeing Castro turned out to be completely bogus. 

Of course a bogus background does not disqualify a person from Conservative candidacy, as long as the person is a Conservative, but independents might have a little bit of problem with a candidate who fabricates his own history.  So Sen. Rubio is no longer the odds on favorite, but he is still a contender.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

Gov. Christie has been a favorite of Conservatives more because of his tough talk then his actions.  A blunt but effective bully, Gov. Christie has been a somewhat successful Governor in a Democratic state.  His popularity has rebounded as he begins to restore funding to education and other programs, thanks to the success of national Democratic economic policy which has given his state greater revenues.

But Gov. Christie has at least one weakness that must bother Conservatives.  He has a streak of tolerance, and has appointed a Muslim to a high court position and strongly defended his right to do so in the face of religious bigotry.  He also is willing to let the people of the state vote on same sex marriage, instead of condemning it.  Hence his stock as a VP candidate is falling.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels

Gov. Daniels aroused opposition in Conservative circles last year by calling for the Republicans to put aside the culture wars.  As the recent controversies over health insurance for family planning and abortion restrictions has shown, this was good advice.  But good advice is something Conservatives hate so they downgraded him.

Now the Gov. has returned to the good graces of Conservatives by implementing an anti-union policy in the state.  But his bland nature doesn’t fit well, he is sort of a Mitt Romney without the Romney charisma and personality. (yes, that is saracasm)

Virginia Gov. Robert McDonnell

After Sen. Rubio’s fall the first term (and not to be second term because of Virginia’s term limits) Governor of Virginia was the likely choice for the VP slot.  Virginia’s economy has been strong because of the presence of large amounts of Federal spending, and this allowed the Governor to take credit for economic good times and at the same time rant against Federal spending (many Virginians are just not that bright).

But Mr. McDonnell now has his name associated with the terms “trans-vaginal” and "vaginal probe" and those arejust not terms any successful politician has ever been associated with.  Gov. McDonnell is a closet radical masquerading as a rational conservative politician, but the publicity over his stand on pre-abortion ultra sound has made him a national joke.  This is not to say being a national joke could prevent one from being a Vice President (see Quayle, Dan) but it gets harder because the media penetration of the national psyche is now greater.

So there it is, four flawed candidates all seeking to be the flawed Vice Presidential nominee of a flawed Republican Presidential candidate.  Does anyone hear the name Jeb (No George is not my brother, we just have the same mother and father) Bush in the wind?

Casinos – A Growing Industry That Creates Jobs and Destroys Societies

Here’s Hoping It Will Grow Itself to Death

At some time in the future  the scientific community may discover the genetic defect that causes normally rational men and women to lose huge sums of monies to casinos.  It is not gambling that takes place in places like casinos, it is the deliberate losing of money.  For any given night and for any given amount wagered the casino can compute to the several decimal points exactly how much revenue the casino will have earned taken.

The Dismal Political Economist is a former instructor in statistics and probability.  He once proposed to the Dean that the final exam in his probability course would be to take the students to a nearby casino, give them each $100.00 and any student who used the money to play any of the casino games instead of walking out with the $100.00 would be given an F in the course.  The Dean was not amused.

The growth of casino gambling is an unexplained phenomena.  On would think that after years of losing money to casinos the public would be fed up, but no, they just keep demanding more.  And because state governments can get in on the action and use casino revenues in place of raising taxes, the parlors just  keep coming.

After shunning the concept for years, Massachusetts, seeking solutions to its budget woes, last fall became the first New England state to pass a broad law allowing resort casinos. Now others may not be far behind.

Under the Massachusetts law, which allows for three casinos to be built in three different regions, the state will pocket 25 percent of the gambling proceeds, plus 40 percent of the proceeds from a separate slot parlor that it will also allow. 

And the rest of New England is also taking a look at what Massachusetts is doing, and thinking , why not?

In New Hampshire, which dreads losing tourism money to Massachusetts, lawmakers are considering a bill that would allow up to four casinos there. Maine just granted its first casino license to a six-year-old Bangor slot parlor that will add table games next month, and a second casino is expected to open in Oxford this year. Both are the result of voter referendums. Rhode Island, which already has two slot parlors, will hold a referendum in November on whether to allow table games at one of them.

In Connecticut, the two tribes that offer gambling at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun are now worried about losing patrons to Massachusetts. The Mohegan tribe is hoping to win one of the Massachusetts casino licenses and open a Mohegan Sun location in Palmer, a town of 12,750, which borders Brimfield.

The hope here, of course, is that overbuilding will result in severe harm to the industry, but that is not very likely.  If, like The Dismal Political Economist believes, casino gambling is regarded as a “tax on stupidity” then it is probable that the industry has unlimited growth potential, the supply of stupidity being so great.  Conservatives like to say that if you tax something you get less of it, in this case taxing stupidity seems to create more of it.

Dear Dismal Political Economist! – “No One Understands My Position on the Auto Bailout”

An Advice Column for the Perplexed and Confused on Economic and Political Issues

[Editor’s Note:  In his continuing effort to bring light and clarification to  current events and current issues, The Dismal Political Economist is now answering reader’s questions on how the current political and economic climate affects them personally.]

Dear Dismal Political Economist

I have stated what I believe is a clear and unequivocal position on the government’s bailout of the auto companies GM and Chrysler.  I wrote an opinion piece that said “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” but by that I didn’t really mean they should go bankrupt.  What I meant was  that they should have a managed bankruptcy, whatever that is.  I later said that the Obama program made the situation worse, but also that they did exactly what I proposed.  I also said that the government should not have provided funding, but that they could provide funding at the end of the process. 

For some reason even my supporters claim they don’t understand my position. What’s wrong with these people, how can I make this any clearer?

Signed

Mitt from Michigan (and Utah and California and New Hampshire and Massachusetts)

Dear Mitt:

While others would pull back from this challenge, The Dismal Political Economist can tell you exactly what to do. 

You need to have your handlers come up with a set of stock phrases that you can use when this question of your position on the auto bailout comes up.  For example when someone asks you to explain your position on the government’s support for GM and Chrysler you say

“You know my position on that”

or

“I think I have made my position clear”

or

“Check the record, my words speak for themselves”

or

“Read my past statements and you will see exactly where I stand”

and so forth and so forth until the questioner gives up in frustration.  This will work, trust us.

Signed

The DPE

Million Moms for Bigotry Has New Target, Archie Comics

Don’t Stop Them Now and Apple Pie and Chevrolet Are Next

The American Family Association, a group that advocates only for families that they think are morally fit has an offshoot group called One Million Moms.  The one million moms, if they indeed have that many are out there protecting the rest of us from things they don’t like.  For example, they have mightily protested the action by J. C. Penney to use Ellen Degeneres as their spokesperson.  It seems they don’t approve of Ms. Degeneres’s private life.



The Offending Cover - Oh the Horror!!
Don't Tell the Children



Now the group is after Archie comics.  While the rest of us see nothing but wholesomeness in the illustrated lives of  Archie, Veronica, Betty, Jughead and the gang,  it seems that the current issue of Archie comics has a cover that they do not believe is appropriate for children.  This is not just their children, but everyone’s children, they being the moral arbiter of what your children should see. 

After failing to convince JC Penney to fire Ellen DeGeneres as their spokesperson because she is openly gay, now the American Family Association’s group One Million Moms is putting Toys R Us in its crosshairs for selling an Archie comic book that features a same-sex marriage. The group demands that Toys R Us “remove all the same-sex ‘Just Married – Archie’ comic books immediately from your shelves” before children are “exposed to same-sex marriage.” 

Here is the exact complaint from the million moms.

Select Toys 'R' Us stores are now selling 'Archie' comic books with a same-sex wedding displayed on the front cover. The front cover reads "Just Married" with two men marrying and one is wearing a service uniform. This comic book is being sold in select stores across the country. One example is the Queensbury, NY location in the upstate New York area.

The problem of course is that a family oriented publication like Archie comics thinks everyone should be allowed to follow their own personal beliefs when those beliefs do not injure or impinge on the lives and rights of anyone else.  And thanks to Think Progress we have this eloquent response from the publisher.

Archie Comics co-CEO John Goldwater has a typically classy response to the kerfuffle. He says: “We stand by Life with Archie #16. As I’ve said before, Riverdale is a safe, welcoming place that does not judge anyone. It’s an idealized version of America that will hopefully become reality someday.

We’re sorry the American Family Association/OneMillionMoms.com feels so negatively about our product, but they have every right to their opinion, just like we have the right to stand by ours. Kevin Keller will forever be a part of Riverdale, and he will live a happy, long life free of prejudice, hate and narrow-minded people.“

Kinda hard to argue with that.

Uh Oh – Citi Economists Think Portugal is Next in Line to be the New Greece

The Real Question – Who is Next in Line Behind Portugal

The Greek bailout is just about complete, with private investors getting ready to take a 50%+ haircut on the Greek sovereign debt that they own.  The Troika (the IMF, the ECB and the European Union) has said that this will be the last time private investors have to take a haircut.  Citibank economists say “no way”.

Citi analysts have attempted to explain the Portugal enigma, which they note now has the country’s 10-year bonds trading at some 1,000 basis points above Bunds.

The reason, Jurgen Michels and team say, is simply that the country is not on a sustainable fiscal path:

In earlier assessments of its debt position, we argued that Portugal would not be able to move on to a viable fiscal path without a haircut of 35% by the end of 2012 or in 2013. While we acknowledge that Portugal is in many aspects different from Greece, we now conclude that the size of the haircut will need to be raised to 50%, most likely taking the form of a reduction in the debt held by the private sector. We argue that the size of the haircut will depend on the macroeconomic situation, the amount of arrears that the government will need to settle, and the size of contingent liabilities that will require financing. In any case, assuming that market access cannot be regained before 2016, Portugal would need an extension in its official funding of between €50bn to €65bn.

Portugal is doing what the Troika said to do, and that is a large part of the problem.  The country is forecast to be able to get money from the private credit markets in 2013, an outcome most of us say is impossible.  So part of the problem is pure denial, and a position that hopes for the best while not preparing for the worst likely.

[thanks to Tyler Cowen]

Meanwhile Back in the Real World Does Anyone Notice that The Stock Market Has Endorsed the Obama Presidency

No Wonder Republicans Hate Him

If you listen to Republicans the Obama Presidency has been an investor’s disaster.  The deficit is out of control, unemployment is all Mr. Obama’s fault, and business has no confidence in the economy and so it will not invest.  In fact investors just hate Mr. Obama and will flee the markets.

The only problem with this scenario is that things are not working out quite that way.  The Dow Jones is now in the 13,000 range.  On Tuesday

After bouncing up and down around the 13000 level for a week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally closed above that psychologically important mark for the first time since May 2008.

Hm, May 2008, we wonder what party controlled the Presidency in that month?

So looking at the chart of the market can anyone see where Mr. Obama took office?  Yeah, right about at the low point.

Any explanation why Wall Street is raising money to defeat Mr. Obama?  Well he does want them to pay their fair share of taxes, and everyone knows that Wall Streeters would rather have lower after tax income than higher after tax income as long as taxes are lower.  Everyone recognizes Wall Streeters are rich, nobody thinks they are smart.

Mitt Romney on the Daytona 500 NASCAR Race – “I Just Love Cars”

No, Make that Car Team Owners

The fact that Mitt Romney is very rich does not disqualify him from being President of the United States. Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy were great leaders who came from very wealthy families. The fact that Mr. Romney has no clue about the part of the world that is not rich does not make him a very attractive candidate.  Here is Mr. Romney waxing poetic on the sport of stock car racing.

Romney was at Daytona last year and said he also has been to the track in New Hampshire. Does he follow the sport?

"Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans," he said. "But I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners."

In this same vein one can easily imagine the answer Mr. Romney might give to similar questions.  For example on baseball

Romney was in New York and was asked if he followed the Yankees.

“Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans” he said, “But I have some friends who are Major League team owners.”

And on foreign policy

Romney was at the United Nations and was asked if liked foreign countries.

“Not as much as some” he said, “But I have some friends who own several foreign countries.”

And on Real Estate

Romney was asked how many homes he owned and said

“Only five or seven, but I have some friends who own ten or twelve.”

And whether or not he likes a nice meal

Romney was asked if he likes a good steak dinner

“Not as well as some meat lovers” he said, “but I have some friends who own chains of restaurants, and two who own about a third of the state of Texas.”

           

So there you have it, Mitt Romney, just one of the regular guys.