Santorum Wins in Alabama and Mississippi Means the Republican Race May Last All Summer

Focus Now on the Elite Eight – With Three Critical States That Really Are Critical States

The polling in Mississippi and Alabama did not indicate that Rick Santorum would win both states, and even the Exit Polling did not indicate that Mr. Santorum would do all that well.  But polling does not win elections, votes win elections.  Here is what are the important points from the most recent “most important” races, just before the next set of “most important” races.

1. The elections in Mississippi and Alabama had no importance for the general election. This idea that Mr. Romney cannot win in the South is irrelevant for November.  The Republican nominee will win those states.  Heck, Saddam Hussein if he were still alive would win those states against Mr. Obama.

2. Newt Gingrich is Mitt Romney’s most important friend at this point.  By staying in Gingrich splits the anti-Romney vote.  After the election expect Mr. Gingrich to be inducted into the “Useful Idiots Hall of Fame”. 

3. Mitt Romney may be one of the worse primary campaigners ever.  His message now is that he has the most delegates and will have the most delegates and therefore Republicans have to accept him.  It is a terrible argument.  No one likes to be pushed or forced. Nothing is a bigger loser in American politics than the premature claim of victory.  Mr. Romney has to make the one case he can make, that he alone can defeat Mr. Obama in the fall.  That is his only winning argument.

4. What is now likely to happen is that Mr. Romney will go to the Republican convention with less than the majority needed for a first ballot nomination.  This will be a “contested” convention as opposed to a “brokered” convention.  The likely outcome is still a Romney victory after two or more ballots.  Why?  Because no other scenario is feasible.  What would it say about Republicans if they fail to nominate the person with the most delegates?

5. No meaningful polls in the Presidential race can really take place until after the Republican ticket is known.  Democrats will be an after thought until the race is set.

This Forum said that in order for Mr. Santorum to win three things had to happen.  One is that Mr. Gingrich had to leave the race, and Mr. Gingrich may not do so.  The second thing is for Mr. Santorum to win almost all the remaining contests and so far he is doing so. Illinois is his next test.  In a bit of political irony, working class Republican Catholic voters who should be Mr. Santorum’s core constituency have been breaking for Mr. Romney.  They may be the difference in Illinois.  If they propel Mr. Romney to victory the irony will be sweet indeed.

The third thing that must take place  for Mr. Romney to lose is that the Republican leadership must accept Mr. Santorum as a viable candidate.  There is no movement in that direction at this time.  And that is important, because if Mr. Romney should see some of the senior Republicans break away from him, he has trouble with a capital T.  The biggest unknown out there at this point in time is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  A Jeb Bush endorsement would help Mr. Romney immensely, but it doesn’t seem to be coming.

The key indicator of how vulnerable Mr. Romney is will be seen in how quickly he selects a potential VP running mate.  The feeling here is that Mr. Romney will quickly move to select Florida Senator Marco Rubio or Virginia Governor Robert McDonnell (or possibly New Jersey Governor Chris Christie)  in order to make a pre-emptive strike against a Conservative revolt at the convention in Tampa.  Mr. Romney needs the “Radical Conservative masquerading as a Moderate” to fight the battle for him with the Republican base.

There are, for the most part eight critical contests remaining.  There are three in the East, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and New York; three in the Midwest, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana; and two in the West, Texas and California.  Of the eight only three have general election implications, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  Of these three North Carolina may be the most important.

The Tar Heel state has a kicker in its May 8^th primary.  A measure to amend the state constitution to prohibit same sex marriage will be on the ballot.  This could well tip the state to Mr. Santorum, as it will drive turnout amongst his base.  Weakness in North Carolina, along with a loss to Mr. Santorum in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will give Mr. Romney the aura of un-electability.   That more than anything else could doom his candidacy.

After all, if Republicans feel they are going to lose with Mr. Romney many of them would rather lose with Mr. Santorum.