Preview of Not-So-Super Tuesday - Telling You the Winners and Losers Before the Vote

Because Anyone Can Tell You the Winners and Losers After the Vote

The end of the beginning of the Republican race for the Presidential nomination took place three weeks ago with primaries in Michigan and Arizona.  After flirting with Rick Santorum, voters in both states went for Mr. Romney.  It doesn’t matter that Mr. Santorum took some delegates, in fact he took about half in Michigan.  What matters is that after the first phase of the race for the nomination Mr. Romney is the leader, even if it is largely by default.

Tuesday’s primaries, what used to be a Super Tuesday but now reduced to less than 10 meaningful contests are the beginning of the end phase.  This is the phase where Mr. Romney takes a leading position and moves towards confirmation that he will be the nominee.  So unless we are wrong, and that almost always happens, here is what is going to happen in the Tuesday primaries.

1. Mitt Romney Will Have a Big Win in Georgia – No Mr. Romney will not win the vote, that will go to Newt Gingrich.  But by winning Georgia Mr. Gingrich will be encouraged to stay in the race.  This will deflect enough votes from Mr. Santorum to make Mr. Romney the winner in future primaries.

2. The momentum is moving to Mr. Romney in Ohio, and he will win the state by about the same margin he won Michigan.  Voters have been forced to look closely at Mr. Santorum and they do not like what they see.  This is understandable, when anyone looks at Mr. Santorum they don’t like what they see.  Heck, Mrs. Santorum is probably not all that thrilled.

3. Tennessee is a critical state.  Mr. Santorum has led, but a win by Mr. Romney will establish him in the South, and should devastate Mr. Santorum in the region.  This could be the closest race of the evening.

4. Mr. Romney is expected to win his home state of Massachusetts, just like he won his home state of New Hampshire and his home state of Michigan.  If Mr. Romney had just used his wealth to buy homes in all 50 states the race for the nomination would have been over long ago.

5. Ron Paul is likely to continue his record of zero wins, although he could pull out a victory in the Alaska primary, since no other candidate was willing to go to Alaska during the winter.  Mr. Paul’s strategy is to collect enough delegates so that he is the kingmaker at the Republican convention.,  Mr. Paul is deeply delusional.

6. One certainty is that Mr. Romney will win Virginia.  After the incompetent campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum failed to get their candidates on the ballot, the state’s Republican Governor who hopes to be the V.P. (that’s Vice President, not Vaginal Probe) choice of Mr. Romney blocked any change that would have allowed Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum from getting on the ballot.  Nice affirmation of democracy there.

So there it is, 24 hours before the vote totals are in, all you need to know.  And here's what superstar of political prognostication Nate Silver says will happen in key states.

Ohio Mar. 6	VOTE  PROJECTION	CHANCE  OF WIN
Mitt Romney	36.6%	65%
Rick Santorum	34.3	35
Newt Gingrich	16.6	0

Full Ohio Details

Oklahoma Mar. 6	VOTE  PROJECTION	CHANCE  OF WIN
Rick Santorum	38.8%	91%
Mitt Romney	28.0	8
Newt Gingrich	23.1	1

Full Oklahoma Details

Tennessee Mar. 6	VOTE  PROJECTION	CHANCE  OF WIN
Rick Santorum	32.6%	56%
Mitt Romney	31.1	39
Newt Gingrich	26.5	5